Wolfsberger AC 1-4 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 40%, yet in-form Wolfsberger AC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz meet at Lavanttal Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 August 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wolfsberger AC have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Bundesliga outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Wolfsberger AC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sturm Graz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Wolfsberger AC's 1.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Sturm Graz's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Wolfsberger AC register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Sturm Graz in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 0.99 xG and Sturm Graz 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.974 / defence 1.150 | Sturm Graz attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.885 / away 1.343. Data: 1 Wolfsberger AC games / 1 Sturm Graz games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 24% | Draw 36% | Sturm Graz 40%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 4.17 | Draw 2.78 | Sturm Graz 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wolfsberger AC (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 24% | Draw 36% | Sturm Graz 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 50% | xG Wolfsberger AC 0.99 / Sturm Graz 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.974 / def 1.150 | Sturm Graz attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.885 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Sturm Graz xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Wolfsberger AC 1 - 4 Sturm Graz.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 24% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 40% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. Sturm Graz (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 0.97x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (0.85x) against Wolfsberger AC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
24%
4.12
36%
2.80
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.30
1.31
Sturm Graz xG
4.12
24%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
7%
15.31
15%
6.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 13.1 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.31 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Wolfsberger AC have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sturm Graz's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Wolfsberger AC are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sturm Graz.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Sturm Graz in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Early Season
Sturm Graz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 4-0 on 3 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wolfsberger AC have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wolfsberger AC
4
Draws
3
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, Sturm Graz have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 2-2 Sturm Graz.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 100% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Wolfsberger AC's recent games and 100% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sturm Graz run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Wolfsberger AC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Wolfsberger AC 1-4 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 0.99 xG and Sturm Graz 1.31 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Sturm Graz outscored their 1.31 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Sturm Graz attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 24% | Draw 36% | Sturm Graz 40%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 0%, Sturm Graz 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Sturm Graz winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wolfsberger AC shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.