Wolfsberger AC 2-3 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Wolfsberger AC welcome SCR Altach to Lavanttal Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 October 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Wolfsberger AC — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC at Lavanttal Arena this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Wolfsberger AC at 1.20 PPG versus SCR Altach's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 70% versus SCR Altach 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wolfsberger AC 75% | SCR Altach 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 2.04 xG and SCR Altach 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.153 / defence 1.257 | SCR Altach attack 0.785 / defence 1.323. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.786. SCR Altach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.323 — this is suppressing Wolfsberger AC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Wolfsberger AC games / 34 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 45% | Draw 22% | SCR Altach 34%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.22 | Draw 4.55 | SCR Altach 2.94. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 90% | SCR Altach 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 45% | Draw 22% | SCR Altach 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG Wolfsberger AC 2.04 / SCR Altach 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.153 / def 1.257 | SCR Altach attack 0.785 / def 1.323 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.786 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.76
SCR Altach xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Wolfsberger AC 2 - 3 SCR Altach.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 45% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 34% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 1.15x the league average against SCR Altach's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 2.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
45%
2.24
22%
4.58
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
3.80
1.76
SCR Altach xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.63
Clean Sheet
17%
5.82
13%
7.70
Win to Nil
8%
13.06
4%
22.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.76 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Wolfsberger AC have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 18W 7D 19L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SCR Altach's form line: 10W 10D 24L from 44 games, 0.91 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Wolfsberger AC are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SCR Altach.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Wolfsberger AC have posted 1.43 PPG from 21 outings (9W 3D 9L).
On the road, SCR Altach have gone 6W 3D 12L from 21 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.89 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 18W 7D 19L in their last 44 games (1.39 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 10W 10D 24L in their last 44 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or SCR Altach away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.43 PPG; SCR Altach away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 4 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2026, when Wolfsberger AC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wolfsberger AC
4
Draws
3
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, SCR Altach have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when SCR Altach 1-4 Wolfsberger AC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 71%, SCR Altach 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Wolfsberger AC and 67% for SCR Altach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SCR Altach in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Wolfsberger AC's recent matches and 38% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 67% of SCR Altach's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SCR Altach defy the odds to beat Wolfsberger AC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat Wolfsberger AC 2-3 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 2.04 xG and SCR Altach 1.76 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. SCR Altach outscored their 1.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.15 / defence 1.26 against SCR Altach attack 0.79 / defence 1.32, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 45% | Draw 22% | SCR Altach 34%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual SCR Altach win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 75%, SCR Altach 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
SCR Altach's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with SCR Altach winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.