Wolfsberger AC 3-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 17 as Wolfsberger AC welcome SCR Altach to Lavanttal Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 December 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wolfsberger AC — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC at Lavanttal Arena this season: 4W 1D 3L from 8 home games — 1.62 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach away from home this season: 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.14 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Wolfsberger AC have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 56% versus SCR Altach 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 69% | SCR Altach 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.34 xG and SCR Altach 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.155 / defence 1.204 | SCR Altach attack 0.574 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.299. Data: 16 Wolfsberger AC games / 16 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 47% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 25%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | SCR Altach 4.00. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Wolfsberger AC 62% | SCR Altach 29%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 47% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.34 / SCR Altach 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.155 / def 1.204 | SCR Altach attack 0.574 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
0.90
SCR Altach xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Wolfsberger AC 3 - 0 SCR Altach.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 47% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 1.16x the league average against SCR Altach's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.57
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.24
0.90
SCR Altach xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
6%
15.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.8 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 0.90 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, Wolfsberger AC have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 8W 3D 5L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SCR Altach's form line: 3W 4D 9L from 16 games, 0.81 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Wolfsberger AC are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SCR Altach.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Wolfsberger AC have posted 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L).
On the road, SCR Altach have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.56 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 8W 3D 5L in their last 16 games (1.69 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 3W 4D 9L in their last 16 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or SCR Altach away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.86 PPG; SCR Altach away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Wolfsberger AC or SCR Altach been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wolfsberger AC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, SCR Altach in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 4 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2026, when Wolfsberger AC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wolfsberger AC
4
Draws
3
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, SCR Altach have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when SCR Altach 1-4 Wolfsberger AC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
SCR Altach see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 57%, SCR Altach 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Wolfsberger AC) and 29% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach in 43%; SCR Altach in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Wolfsberger AC's recent matches and 29% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Wolfsberger AC's recent games and 29% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wolfsberger AC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SCR Altach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat SCR Altach 3-0 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.34 xG and SCR Altach 0.90 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SCR Altach landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.16 / defence 1.20 against SCR Altach attack 0.57 / defence 0.99, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 47% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 25%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 69%, SCR Altach 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
SCR Altach's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.81. That form edge translated into the three points. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.