Wolfsberger AC 1-2 Ried – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolfsberger AC vs Ried encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 11 as Wolfsberger AC welcome Ried to Lavanttal Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 October 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Wolfsberger AC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wolfsberger AC have posted 2W 2D 6L at Lavanttal Arena — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Lavanttal Arena this season.
Ried — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Ried have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Wolfsberger AC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Wolfsberger AC, 0 for Ried and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Ried trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wolfsberger AC 69% and Ried 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 74% | Ried 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.85 xG and Ried 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.198 / defence 1.190 | Ried attack 0.528 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.754. Data: 32 Wolfsberger AC games / 32 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 52% | Draw 29% | Ried 20%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Ried 5.00. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 90% | Ried 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 52% | Draw 29% | Ried 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.85 / Ried 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.198 / def 1.190 | Ried attack 0.528 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.754 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Ried xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Ried kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Ried kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Wolfsberger AC 1 - 2 Ried.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Ried part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Ried is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 52% chance of winning, Ried a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Ried?
Record (1 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 1W | Draws 0 | Ried 0W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Ried in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Ried (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 1.20x the league average against Ried's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ried's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
52%
1.93
29%
3.50
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.95
1.10
Ried xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
3%
32.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.7 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.10 for Ried, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 18W 7D 17L from 42 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ried, meanwhile, have gone 9W 15D 18L across 42 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wolfsberger AC by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ried heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 9W 3D 9L from 21 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ried's away record stands at 2W 6D 13L across 21 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ried's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.10 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Ried in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Ried
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Ried in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 18W 7D 17L in their last 42 games (1.45 PPG), while Ried have gone 9W 15D 18L in their last 42 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Ried away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.43 PPG; Ried away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 19 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting Ried specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Wolfsberger AC
2
Draws
4
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Ried?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, Ried have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Ried 2-1 Wolfsberger AC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 71%, Ried 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Wolfsberger AC) and 33% (Ried).
On the defensive side: Ried in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Ried?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 52% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Wolfsberger AC's recent games and 33% of Ried's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Ried tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Ried in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ried defy the odds to beat Wolfsberger AC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ried beat Wolfsberger AC 1-2 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.85 xG and Ried 1.10 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Ried outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.20 / defence 1.19 against Ried attack 0.53 / defence 1.13, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 52% | Draw 29% | Ried 20%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Ried win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 74%, Ried 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Ried's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Ried winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ried (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.