Wolfsberger AC 2-1 Ried – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolfsberger AC vs Ried encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 19 as Wolfsberger AC welcome Ried to Lavanttal Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 February 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Wolfsberger AC have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wolfsberger AC have posted 5W 1D 3L at Lavanttal Arena — 1.78 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ried — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Ried have posted 1W 2D 6L from 9 away outings — 0.56 PPG. Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 2.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.56 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Wolfsberger AC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Ried trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wolfsberger AC 56% and Ried 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wolfsberger AC 72% | Ried 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 2.03 xG and Ried 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.182 / defence 1.109 | Ried attack 0.720 / defence 1.435. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.357. Ried bring a strong defensive rating of 1.435 — this is suppressing Wolfsberger AC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Wolfsberger AC games / 18 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 59% | Draw 22% | Ried 19%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Ried 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Wolfsberger AC (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 56% | Ried 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 59% | Draw 22% | Ried 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG Wolfsberger AC 2.03 / Ried 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.182 / def 1.109 | Ried attack 0.720 / def 1.435 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Ried xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Ried kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Ried kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Wolfsberger AC 2 - 1 Ried.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Ried part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Ried is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 59% chance of winning, Ried a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Ried?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Ried in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Ried (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 1.18x the league average against Ried's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 2.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ried's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
59%
1.69
22%
4.64
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
3.12
1.08
Ried xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
13%
7.64
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
3%
39.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.08 for Ried, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 9W 4D 5L from 18 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ried, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 6L across 18 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wolfsberger AC on 1.72 PPG, Ried on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 5W 1D 3L from 9 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ried's away record stands at 1W 2D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ried's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.33 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried in 72%.
Last 18 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Ried
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Ried in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 9W 4D 5L in their last 18 games (1.72 PPG), while Ried have gone 6W 6D 6L in their last 18 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Ried away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.78 PPG; Ried away: 0.56 PPG.
Have Wolfsberger AC or Ried been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wolfsberger AC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ried in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 19 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting Ried specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Wolfsberger AC
2
Draws
4
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Ried?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, Ried have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Ried 2-1 Wolfsberger AC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 56%, Ried 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Wolfsberger AC and 56% for Ried. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ried in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Ried?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 67% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 56% of Ried's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Ried tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ried in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wolfsberger AC edge out Ried 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Ried 2-1 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 2.03 xG and Ried 1.08 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.18 / defence 1.11 against Ried attack 0.72 / defence 1.44, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 59% | Draw 22% | Ried 19%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 72%, Ried 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Ried's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.72 PPG, Ried 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.