Wolfsberger AC 1-2 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lavanttal Arena plays host to Wolfsberger AC versus Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 26 February 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wolfsberger AC have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lavanttal Arena, Wolfsberger AC have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Lavanttal Arena this season.
Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Wolfsberger AC 1W, Rapid Vienna 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 3–1 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Wolfsberger AC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wolfsberger AC 70% and Rapid Vienna 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wolfsberger AC 76% | Rapid Vienna 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.28 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.010 / defence 1.234 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.980 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.376. Data: 40 Wolfsberger AC games / 40 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 30% | Draw 24% | Rapid Vienna 46%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Rapid Vienna 2.17. Rapid Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 100% | Rapid Vienna 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 30% | Draw 24% | Rapid Vienna 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.28 / Rapid Vienna 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.010 / def 1.234 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.980 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Rapid Vienna xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Wolfsberger AC 1 - 2 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 30% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna?
Record (1 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 1W | Draws 0 | Rapid Vienna 0W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 1.01x the league average against Rapid Vienna's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rapid Vienna's attack (0.98x) against Wolfsberger AC's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
30%
3.38
24%
4.15
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.95
1.66
Rapid Vienna xG
3.38
30%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
19%
5.28
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
6%
17.85
13%
7.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.7 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.66 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 20W 7D 23L from 50 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rapid Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 20W 13D 17L across 50 games — 1.46 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Wolfsberger AC against 1.46 for Rapid Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 9W 3D 13L from 25 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rapid Vienna's away record stands at 8W 8D 9L across 25 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.58 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Rapid Vienna in 64%.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 20W 7D 23L in their last 50 games (1.34 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 20W 13D 17L in their last 50 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Rapid Vienna's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.20 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Rapid Vienna go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won 5-1 on 20 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wolfsberger AC have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rapid Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Wolfsberger AC
2
Draws
4
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, Rapid Vienna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Rapid Vienna 2-0 Wolfsberger AC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for Wolfsberger AC, 72% for Rapid Vienna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Wolfsberger AC and 56% for Rapid Vienna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 72% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 56% of Rapid Vienna's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rapid Vienna edge out Wolfsberger AC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat Wolfsberger AC 1-2 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.28 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.66 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.01 / defence 1.23 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.98 / defence 0.93, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 30% | Draw 24% | Rapid Vienna 46%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 76%, Rapid Vienna 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.34 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.