Wolfsberger AC 4-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lavanttal Arena plays host to Wolfsberger AC versus Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 7 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wolfsberger AC have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lavanttal Arena, Wolfsberger AC have gone 3W 1D 3L this season (7 games, 1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.43 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Lavanttal Arena this season.
Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's away record: 0W 4D 2L from 6 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Wolfsberger AC's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Rapid Vienna's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Wolfsberger AC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 54% versus Rapid Vienna 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 69% | Rapid Vienna 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.24 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.924 / defence 1.161 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.653 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.433. Data: 13 Wolfsberger AC games / 13 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 38% | Draw 32% | Rapid Vienna 30%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Rapid Vienna 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Wolfsberger AC 57% | Rapid Vienna 83% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 38% | Draw 32% | Rapid Vienna 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.24 / Rapid Vienna 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.924 / def 1.161 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.653 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Rapid Vienna xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Wolfsberger AC 4 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 38% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 0.92x the league average against Rapid Vienna's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rapid Vienna's attack (0.65x) against Wolfsberger AC's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
38%
2.64
32%
3.16
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.33
1.09
Rapid Vienna xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
9%
11.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.09 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 6W 3D 4L from 13 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rapid Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 5L across 13 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Wolfsberger AC against 1.23 for Rapid Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rapid Vienna's away record stands at 0W 4D 2L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rapid Vienna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.54 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 6W 3D 4L in their last 13 games (1.62 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.67 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Wolfsberger AC or Rapid Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wolfsberger AC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Rapid Vienna in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Rapid Vienna go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won 5-1 on 20 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wolfsberger AC have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rapid Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Wolfsberger AC
2
Draws
4
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, Rapid Vienna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Rapid Vienna 2-0 Wolfsberger AC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Wolfsberger AC, 83% for Rapid Vienna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Wolfsberger AC) and 17% (Rapid Vienna).
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 83% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Wolfsberger AC's recent games and 17% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wolfsberger AC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Rapid Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Rapid Vienna 4-1 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.24 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.09 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 0.92 / defence 1.16 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.65 / defence 1.10, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 38% | Draw 32% | Rapid Vienna 30%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 69%, Rapid Vienna 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.62 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.