Wolfsberger AC 1-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 39%, yet in-form Austria Vienna provide a compelling counter-argument — this Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lavanttal Arena plays host to Wolfsberger AC versus Austria Vienna in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 7. Kick-off: Wednesday 27 April 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wolfsberger AC have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Lavanttal Arena, Wolfsberger AC have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Wolfsberger AC are significantly better at Lavanttal Arena than their overall form suggests.
Austria Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Austria Vienna away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Austria Vienna are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 57% versus Austria Vienna 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 68% | Austria Vienna 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.29 xG and Austria Vienna 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.073 / defence 1.026 | Austria Vienna attack 0.916 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.238. Data: 22 Wolfsberger AC games / 22 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 39% | Draw 27% | Austria Vienna 33%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Austria Vienna 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wolfsberger AC at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Austria Vienna (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Wolfsberger AC 50% | Austria Vienna 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 7 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 39% | Draw 27% | Austria Vienna 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.29 / Austria Vienna 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.073 / def 1.026 | Austria Vienna attack 0.916 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Austria Vienna xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 27 April 2022 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Wolfsberger AC 1 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna is a Championship Round - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 39% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Austria Vienna (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Wolfsberger AC's attack rating (1.07) and Austria Vienna's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (0.92x) against Wolfsberger AC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
39%
2.54
27%
3.67
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.45
1.16
Austria Vienna xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
9%
10.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.16 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 28 outings, Wolfsberger AC have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 12W 4D 12L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Austria Vienna's form line: 9W 11D 8L from 28 games, 1.36 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Wolfsberger AC against 1.36 for Austria Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wolfsberger AC have posted 1.57 PPG from 14 outings (7W 1D 6L).
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 4W 5D 5L from 14 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.29 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna in 61%.
Last 28 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Current Season
Austria Vienna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 12W 4D 12L in their last 28 games (1.43 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 9W 11D 8L in their last 28 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Austria Vienna away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.57 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Wolfsberger AC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won 0-4 on 11 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wolfsberger AC have gone 2W 0D 4L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Wolfsberger AC
1
Draws
5
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, Austria Vienna have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 3-0 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Austria Vienna see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 57%, Austria Vienna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Wolfsberger AC) and 36% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Austria Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Wolfsberger AC's recent matches and 50% of Austria Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Wolfsberger AC's recent games and 36% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna finished level at 1-1 at Lavanttal Arena, Championship Round - 7, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.29 xG and Austria Vienna 1.16 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.07 / defence 1.03 against Austria Vienna attack 0.92 / defence 1.04, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 39% | Draw 27% | Austria Vienna 33%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 68%, Austria Vienna 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.43 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.