Wolfsberger AC 1-0 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lavanttal Arena plays host to Wolfsberger AC versus Austria Vienna in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 2 October 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wolfsberger AC have collected 1.00 PPG across 9 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 4L. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 2.11 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.11 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lavanttal Arena, Wolfsberger AC have gone 1W 1D 3L this season (5 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Austria Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 5D 2L from 9 games (1.22 PPG). Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.22 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Vienna away from home this season: 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Wolfsberger AC, 1.22 for Austria Vienna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Austria Vienna in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wolfsberger AC 67% and Austria Vienna 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 78% | Austria Vienna 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.31 xG and Austria Vienna 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.923 / defence 1.363 | Austria Vienna attack 1.055 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.461. Data: 9 Wolfsberger AC games / 9 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 21% | Draw 26% | Austria Vienna 53%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 4.76 | Draw 3.85 | Austria Vienna 1.89. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 2.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Vienna at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 60% | Austria Vienna 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 21% | Draw 26% | Austria Vienna 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.31 / Austria Vienna 2.10 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.923 / def 1.363 | Austria Vienna attack 1.055 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
2.10
Austria Vienna xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Wolfsberger AC 1 - 0 Austria Vienna.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 21% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 2.11 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Austria Vienna (all comps): 2W-5D-2L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.22 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Wolfsberger AC's attack rating (0.92) and Austria Vienna's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (1.05x) against Wolfsberger AC's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 2.10.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
21%
4.79
26%
3.79
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
0 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
3.42
2.10
Austria Vienna xG
4.79
21%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
12%
8.17
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
3%
39.09
14%
7.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 2.10 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Wolfsberger AC have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 3D 4L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Vienna's form line: 2W 5D 2L from 9 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Wolfsberger AC against 1.22 for Austria Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wolfsberger AC have posted 0.80 PPG from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.33 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Austria Vienna in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 2W 5D 2L in their last 9 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 0.80 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Wolfsberger AC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won 0-4 on 11 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wolfsberger AC have gone 2W 0D 4L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Wolfsberger AC
1
Draws
5
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, Austria Vienna have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Wolfsberger AC 2-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Austria Vienna see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 60%, Austria Vienna 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Wolfsberger AC and 60% for Austria Vienna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 60% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 60% of Austria Vienna's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wolfsberger AC defy the odds to beat Austria Vienna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Austria Vienna 1-0 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.31 xG and Austria Vienna 2.10 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Austria Vienna landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 0.92 / defence 1.36 against Austria Vienna attack 1.05 / defence 1.17, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 21% | Draw 26% | Austria Vienna 53%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Wolfsberger AC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 78%, Austria Vienna 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.00 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.