Wolfsberger AC 3-0 Admira Wacker – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Admira Wacker at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs Admira Wacker fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Admira Wacker make the trip to Lavanttal Arena to face Wolfsberger AC in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 August 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Wolfsberger AC's overall Bundesliga record this term: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Wolfsberger AC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Admira Wacker have collected 1.00 PPG across 4 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 1D 2L. Last five: D W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Admira Wacker have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Admira Wacker are 0.50 PPG clear of Wolfsberger AC in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.00 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Admira Wacker — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wolfsberger AC 75% and Admira Wacker 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 75% | Admira Wacker 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.47 xG and Admira Wacker 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.978 / defence 1.448 | Admira Wacker attack 0.786 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.385. Data: 4 Wolfsberger AC games / 4 Admira Wacker games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 32% | Draw 31% | Admira Wacker 37%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Admira Wacker 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Admira Wacker as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Admira Wacker if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 75% | Admira Wacker 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Admira Wacker | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 32% | Draw 31% | Admira Wacker 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 64% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.47 / Admira Wacker 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.978 / def 1.448 | Admira Wacker attack 0.786 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Admira Wacker (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Admira Wacker xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Admira Wacker kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Admira Wacker kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Admira Wacker?
Wolfsberger AC 3 - 0 Admira Wacker.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Admira Wacker being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Admira Wacker part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Admira Wacker is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Admira Wacker?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 32% chance of winning, Admira Wacker a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Admira Wacker the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Admira Wacker?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Admira Wacker will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Admira Wacker have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Admira Wacker?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Admira Wacker in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-D. Admira Wacker (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wolfsberger AC's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Admira Wacker's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Admira Wacker's attack (0.79x) against Wolfsberger AC's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
The sample (4/4 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Admira Wacker Win
32%
3.10
31%
3.26
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
3.04
1.58
Admira Wacker xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
7%
14.97
9%
11.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Admira Wacker?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Admira Wacker expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.58 for Admira Wacker, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Admira Wacker?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wolfsberger AC come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 2D 2L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Admira Wacker sit at 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L), a run that reads D-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Admira Wacker, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Admira Wacker carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Admira Wacker are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Early Season
Admira Wacker
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Admira Wacker in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Admira Wacker have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Wolfsberger AC
0
Draws
0
Admira Wacker
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Admira Wacker?
From 2 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 2, Admira Wacker have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Admira Wacker last play each other?
They last met on 27 November 2021, when Admira Wacker 0-1 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Admira Wacker?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Admira Wacker tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 75%, Admira Wacker 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Wolfsberger AC and 50% for Admira Wacker. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Admira Wacker away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Admira Wacker?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 50% of Admira Wacker's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Admira Wacker usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 50% of Admira Wacker's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Admira Wacker tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Admira Wacker in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wolfsberger AC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Admira Wacker.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Admira Wacker 3-0 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.47 xG and Admira Wacker 1.58 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Admira Wacker landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 0.98 / defence 1.45 against Admira Wacker attack 0.79 / defence 1.17, drawn from 4/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 32% | Draw 31% | Admira Wacker 37%, with Admira Wacker to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Wolfsberger AC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 75%, Admira Wacker 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Admira Wacker's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Admira Wacker arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Wolfsberger AC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wolfsberger AC scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Admira Wacker managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.