TSV Hartberg 2-2 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 18 as TSV Hartberg welcome Wolfsberger AC to PROfertil ARENA. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 December 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's home record at PROfertil ARENA: 2W 2D 4L from 8 Bundesliga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 2L across 8 road games this term (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Wolfsberger AC — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — TSV Hartberg 71% and Wolfsberger AC 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 47% | Wolfsberger AC 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.46 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.948 / defence 1.348 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.952 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.195 / away 1.277. Wolfsberger AC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing TSV Hartberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 TSV Hartberg games / 17 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 34% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 41%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Wolfsberger AC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wolfsberger AC at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 75% | Wolfsberger AC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 34% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.46 / Wolfsberger AC 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.948 / def 1.348 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.952 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.195 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Wolfsberger AC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
TSV Hartberg 2 - 2 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 34% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 0.95x the league average against Wolfsberger AC's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
34%
2.95
25%
4.06
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
3.10
1.64
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.95
34%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
19%
5.15
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
7%
15.19
10%
10.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.64 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 5W 5D 7L from 17 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC, meanwhile, have gone 9W 3D 5L across 17 games — 1.76 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wolfsberger AC by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over TSV Hartberg heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 2W 2D 4L from 8 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wolfsberger AC's away record stands at 4W 2D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.71 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Wolfsberger AC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 5W 5D 7L in their last 17 games (1.18 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 9W 3D 5L in their last 17 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.00 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.75 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Wolfsberger AC been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Wolfsberger AC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Sep 2023, when TSV Hartberg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
3
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 5, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Wolfsberger AC 1-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 75%, Wolfsberger AC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (TSV Hartberg) and 62% (Wolfsberger AC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of TSV Hartberg's games and 50% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 62% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC finished level at 2-2 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.46 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.64 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.95 / defence 1.35 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.95 / defence 1.29, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 34% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 41%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 47%, Wolfsberger AC 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.