TSV Hartberg 1-2 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg host Sturm Graz at PROfertil ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 February 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 3W 2D 5L at PROfertil ARENA — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Sturm Graz's 2.40 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of TSV Hartberg's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. TSV Hartberg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sturm Graz in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — TSV Hartberg 57% and Sturm Graz 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 51% | Sturm Graz 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.01 xG and Sturm Graz 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.900 / defence 1.213 | Sturm Graz attack 0.978 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.436. Sturm Graz's defence strength of 0.795 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 TSV Hartberg games / 39 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 22% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 54%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Sturm Graz 1.85. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sturm Graz are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 60% | Sturm Graz 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 22% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.01 / Sturm Graz 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.900 / def 1.213 | Sturm Graz attack 0.978 / def 0.795 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Sturm Graz xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 2 Sturm Graz.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 22% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Sturm Graz (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Sturm Graz's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
22%
4.49
24%
4.17
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.71
1.70
Sturm Graz xG
4.49
22%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
18%
5.50
37%
2.74
Win to Nil
4%
24.66
20%
5.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.70 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 11W 14D 24L from 49 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz, meanwhile, have gone 26W 14D 9L across 49 games — 1.88 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over TSV Hartberg heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 5W 7D 12L from 24 games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sturm Graz's away record stands at 10W 9D 5L across 24 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.82 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 11W 14D 24L in their last 49 games (0.96 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 26W 14D 9L in their last 49 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 0.92 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.62 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
TSV Hartberg
3
Draws
7
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 0, Sturm Graz have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when TSV Hartberg 2-4 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 62%, Sturm Graz 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (TSV Hartberg) and 54% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of TSV Hartberg's games and 67% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 54% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out TSV Hartberg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat TSV Hartberg 1-2 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.01 xG and Sturm Graz 1.70 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.90 / defence 1.21 against Sturm Graz attack 0.98 / defence 0.80, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 22% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 54%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 51%, Sturm Graz 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.