TSV Hartberg 4-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach meet at PROfertil ARENA in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 7. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 26 April 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 2W 4D 4L at PROfertil ARENA — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SCR Altach (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SCR Altach have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 57% versus SCR Altach 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 43% | SCR Altach 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.35 xG and SCR Altach 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.851 / defence 1.206 | SCR Altach attack 0.589 / defence 1.377. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.238. SCR Altach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.377 — this is suppressing TSV Hartberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 TSV Hartberg games / 22 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 48% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 24%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | SCR Altach 4.17. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 60% | SCR Altach 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 7 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 48% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.35 / SCR Altach 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.851 / def 1.206 | SCR Altach attack 0.589 / def 1.377 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
0.88
SCR Altach xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 26 April 2022 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
TSV Hartberg 4 - 0 SCR Altach.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach part of?
TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach is a Relegation Round - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 48% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from TSV Hartberg's attack rating (0.85) and SCR Altach's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.59x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
48%
2.10
28%
3.59
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.23
0.88
SCR Altach xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
6%
15.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 0.88 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 28 games, going 6W 10D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, SCR Altach sit at 0.79 PPG from 28 outings (5W 7D 16L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for TSV Hartberg against 0.79 for SCR Altach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 2W 5D 7L across 14 games on their own ground, a 0.79 PPG return.
Away from home, SCR Altach have taken 1.00 points per game from 14 outings (4W 2D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.64 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
SCR Altach
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 6W 10D 12L in their last 28 games (1.00 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 5W 7D 16L in their last 28 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or SCR Altach away?
SCR Altach's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 0.79 PPG; SCR Altach away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
TSV Hartberg
6
Draws
0
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 4, SCR Altach have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when TSV Hartberg 0-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 64%, SCR Altach 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (TSV Hartberg) and 57% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 36% of games; SCR Altach in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 36% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 57% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant TSV Hartberg run riot with a 4-0 hammering of SCR Altach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat SCR Altach 4-0 at PROfertil ARENA, Relegation Round - 7, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.35 xG and SCR Altach 0.88 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. TSV Hartberg beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SCR Altach landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.85 / defence 1.21 against SCR Altach attack 0.59 / defence 1.38, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 48% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 24%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 43%, SCR Altach 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
SCR Altach's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.00 PPG, SCR Altach 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.