TSV Hartberg 1-1 Ried – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Ried fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ried make the trip to PROfertil ARENA to face TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 10. The match kicks off on Friday 20 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
TSV Hartberg have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
TSV Hartberg's home record at PROfertil ARENA: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Ried (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ried's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for TSV Hartberg, 0.80 for Ried — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: TSV Hartberg 0W, Ried 1W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ried half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — TSV Hartberg 58% and Ried 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 48% | Ried 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.29 xG and Ried 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.870 / defence 1.198 | Ried attack 0.787 / defence 1.293. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.239. Ried bring a strong defensive rating of 1.293 — this is suppressing TSV Hartberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 TSV Hartberg games / 22 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 39% | Draw 27% | Ried 33%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Ried 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is TSV Hartberg at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: TSV Hartberg 50% | Ried 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 10 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Friday 20 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 39% | Draw 27% | Ried 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.29 / Ried 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.870 / def 1.198 | Ried attack 0.787 / def 1.293 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Ried xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Ried kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Ried kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 20 May 2022 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 1 Ried.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Ried part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Ried is a Relegation Round - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 39% chance of winning, Ried a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Ried?
Record (3 meetings): TSV Hartberg 0W | Draws 2 | Ried 1W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Ried in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Ried (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from TSV Hartberg's attack rating (0.87) and Ried's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ried's attack (0.79x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
39%
2.54
27%
3.68
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.46
1.17
Ried xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
9%
10.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.17 for Ried, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 7W 11D 13L from 31 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Ried, meanwhile, have gone 8W 12D 11L across 31 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for TSV Hartberg against 1.16 for Ried. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 3W 5D 7L from 15 games — 0.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ried's away record stands at 2W 4D 9L across 15 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ried's season.
Attack vs Defence
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.26 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried in 71%.
Last 31 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
Ried
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Ried in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 7W 11D 13L in their last 31 games (1.03 PPG), while Ried have gone 8W 12D 11L in their last 31 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Ried away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 0.93 PPG; Ried away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: TSV Hartberg have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ried — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
TSV Hartberg
3
Draws
1
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Ried?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 6, Ried have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when TSV Hartberg 2-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Ried?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 60%, Ried 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (TSV Hartberg) and 40% (Ried).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 33% of games; Ried in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Ried?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of TSV Hartberg's games and 60% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 40% of Ried's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Ried tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Ried in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg and Ried share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at PROfertil ARENA, Relegation Round - 10, as TSV Hartberg and Ried drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.29 xG and Ried 1.17 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.87 / defence 1.20 against Ried attack 0.79 / defence 1.29, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 39% | Draw 27% | Ried 33%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 48%, Ried 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Ried's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.03 PPG, Ried 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ried (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.