TSV Hartberg 1-1 Ried – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 50%, yet in-form Ried provide a compelling counter-argument — this TSV Hartberg vs Ried fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ried make the trip to PROfertil ARENA to face TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 August 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
TSV Hartberg have collected 1.00 PPG across 3 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 0D 2L. Last five: W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ried (all games): 2W 0D 1L across 3 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 3.00. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Ried have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Ried are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Ried in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
Ried half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — TSV Hartberg 67% and Ried 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (TSV Hartberg 67% | Ried 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 2.09 xG and Ried 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.847 / defence 1.245 | Ried attack 0.833 / defence 1.767. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.366. Ried bring a strong defensive rating of 1.767 — this is suppressing TSV Hartberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 TSV Hartberg games / 3 Ried games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 50% | Draw 26% | Ried 23%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Ried 4.35. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is TSV Hartberg at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ried (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 67% | Ried 100% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 50% | Draw 26% | Ried 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG TSV Hartberg 2.09 / Ried 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.847 / def 1.245 | Ried attack 0.833 / def 1.767 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Ried xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Ried kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Ried kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 1 Ried.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Ried part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Ried is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 50% chance of winning, Ried a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Ried?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Ried in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L. Ried (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 3.00 | L5 W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from TSV Hartberg's attack rating (0.85) and Ried's defence rating (1.77), the model arrives at 2.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ried's attack (0.83x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
50%
1.98
26%
3.79
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
3.51
1.42
Ried xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.23
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
12%
8.10
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
3%
34.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.42 for Ried, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 1W 0D 2L from 3 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ried, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 1L across 3 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ried, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ried by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over TSV Hartberg heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
TSV Hartberg are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.67 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Ried in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
Ried
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Ried in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Ried have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have TSV Hartberg or Ried been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ried in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: TSV Hartberg have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ried — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
TSV Hartberg
3
Draws
1
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Ried?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 6, Ried have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when TSV Hartberg 2-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Ried?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for TSV Hartberg, 100% for Ried — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for TSV Hartberg and 100% for Ried. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Ried?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of TSV Hartberg's games and 100% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 100% of Ried's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Ried tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ried in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg and Ried share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 4, as TSV Hartberg and Ried drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 2.09 xG and Ried 1.42 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. TSV Hartberg fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.85 / defence 1.25 against Ried attack 0.83 / defence 1.77, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 50% | Draw 26% | Ried 23%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 67%, Ried 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Ried's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ried arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. TSV Hartberg managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Ried conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.