TSV Hartberg 2-0 Ried – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Ried encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ried make the trip to PROfertil ARENA to face TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 May 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
TSV Hartberg have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
TSV Hartberg's home record at PROfertil ARENA: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ried (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ried's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for TSV Hartberg, 0.90 for Ried — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Ried in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: TSV Hartberg 3W, Ried 1W, 3D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 7 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 3–1 with TSV Hartberg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Ried half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 56% versus Ried 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 53% | Ried 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.49 xG and Ried 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.052 / defence 1.135 | Ried attack 0.878 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.339. Data: 44 TSV Hartberg games / 44 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 41% | Draw 25% | Ried 34%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Ried 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is TSV Hartberg at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 70% | Ried 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 9 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 41% | Draw 25% | Ried 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.49 / Ried 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 1.052 / def 1.135 | Ried attack 0.878 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Ried xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Ried kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Ried kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
TSV Hartberg 2 - 0 Ried.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Ried part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Ried is a Relegation Round - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 41% chance of winning, Ried a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Ried?
Record (7 meetings): TSV Hartberg 3W | Draws 3 | Ried 1W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Ried in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Ried (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from TSV Hartberg's attack rating (1.05) and Ried's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ried's attack (0.88x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
41%
2.44
25%
3.99
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.83
1.33
Ried xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
11%
9.27
8%
13.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.33 for Ried, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 15W 18D 29L from 62 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Ried, meanwhile, have gone 12W 24D 26L across 62 games — 0.97 PPG, with D-D-D-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for TSV Hartberg against 0.97 for Ried. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 7W 9D 15L from 31 games — 0.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ried's away record stands at 4W 10D 17L across 31 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.06 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried in 63%.
Last 62 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
Ried
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Ried in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 15W 18D 29L in their last 62 games (1.02 PPG), while Ried have gone 12W 24D 26L in their last 62 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Ried away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (0.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 0.97 PPG; Ried away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: TSV Hartberg have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ried — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
TSV Hartberg
3
Draws
1
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Ried?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 6, Ried have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when TSV Hartberg 2-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Ried?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 61%, Ried 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (TSV Hartberg) and 36% (Ried).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 29% of games; Ried in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Ried?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of TSV Hartberg's games and 55% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 36% of Ried's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Ried tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Ried in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ried.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Ried 2-0 at PROfertil ARENA, Relegation Round - 9, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.49 xG and Ried 1.33 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ried landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 1.05 / defence 1.14 against Ried attack 0.88 / defence 1.03, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 41% | Draw 25% | Ried 34%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 53%, Ried 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Ried's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.02 PPG, Ried 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.