TSV Hartberg 0-2 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 46%, yet in-form Red Bull Salzburg provide a compelling counter-argument — this TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 3 as TSV Hartberg welcome Red Bull Salzburg to PROfertil ARENA. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 August 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at PROfertil ARENA this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Red Bull Salzburg have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Red Bull Salzburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Red Bull Salzburg are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. TSV Hartberg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
TSV Hartberg trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 62% versus Red Bull Salzburg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 50% | Red Bull Salzburg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.52 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.010 / defence 1.014 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.992 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.129. Data: 24 TSV Hartberg games / 24 Red Bull Salzburg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 46% | Draw 26% | Red Bull Salzburg 28%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Red Bull Salzburg 3.57. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Red Bull Salzburg (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 60% | Red Bull Salzburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (24 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 46% | Draw 26% | Red Bull Salzburg 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.52 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 1.010 / def 1.014 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.992 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Red Bull Salzburg xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
TSV Hartberg 0 - 2 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 46% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 1.01x the league average against Red Bull Salzburg's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (24/24 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
46%
2.17
26%
3.85
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.66
1.14
Red Bull Salzburg xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
6%
16.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.14 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 34 games, going 8W 12D 14L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Red Bull Salzburg sit at 2.44 PPG from 34 outings (26W 5D 3L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Red Bull Salzburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.38 PPG clear of TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 4W 6D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Red Bull Salzburg have taken 2.12 points per game from 17 outings (11W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.38 scored and 0.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
Red Bull Salzburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 8W 12D 14L in their last 34 games (1.06 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 26W 5D 3L in their last 34 (2.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.06 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 2.12 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
7
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 65%, Red Bull Salzburg 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (TSV Hartberg) and 59% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 41%; TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Red Bull Salzburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of TSV Hartberg's games and 59% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 59% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Red Bull Salzburg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat TSV Hartberg 0-2 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.52 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.14 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. TSV Hartberg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Red Bull Salzburg outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 1.01 / defence 1.01 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.99 / defence 0.99, drawn from 24/24 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 46% | Draw 26% | Red Bull Salzburg 28%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Red Bull Salzburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 50%, Red Bull Salzburg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.