TSV Hartberg 1-2 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rapid Vienna at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 16 as TSV Hartberg welcome Rapid Vienna to PROfertil ARENA. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 November 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 3W 2D 5L at PROfertil ARENA — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — TSV Hartberg are significantly better at PROfertil ARENA than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Rapid Vienna have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Rapid Vienna's 1.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of TSV Hartberg's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. TSV Hartberg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Rapid Vienna in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Rapid Vienna in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — TSV Hartberg 57% and Rapid Vienna 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 51% | Rapid Vienna 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.12 xG and Rapid Vienna 2.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.852 / defence 1.231 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.069 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.659. Data: 37 TSV Hartberg games / 37 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 18% | Draw 22% | Rapid Vienna 61%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 5.56 | Draw 4.55 | Rapid Vienna 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Rapid Vienna (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.12 / 2.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 60% | Rapid Vienna 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 18% | Draw 22% | Rapid Vienna 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.12 / Rapid Vienna 2.18 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.852 / def 1.231 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.069 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.659 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
2.18
Rapid Vienna xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 2 Rapid Vienna.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 18% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 61% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Rapid Vienna's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 2.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
18%
5.71
22%
4.57
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
0 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
3.30
2.18
Rapid Vienna xG
5.71
18%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
11%
8.87
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
2%
50.67
20%
5.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 2.18 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 47 games, going 10W 14D 23L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rapid Vienna sit at 1.43 PPG from 47 outings (18W 13D 16L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rapid Vienna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 5W 7D 11L across 23 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Rapid Vienna have taken 1.26 points per game from 23 outings (7W 8D 8L).
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.57 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna in 66%.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 10W 14D 23L in their last 47 games (0.94 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 18W 13D 16L in their last 47 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Rapid Vienna's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 0.96 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Rapid Vienna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
3
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 5, Rapid Vienna have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Rapid Vienna 0-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — TSV Hartberg at 61%, Rapid Vienna at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (TSV Hartberg) and 56% (Rapid Vienna).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of TSV Hartberg's games and 74% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 56% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rapid Vienna edge out TSV Hartberg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat TSV Hartberg 1-2 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.12 xG and Rapid Vienna 2.18 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.85 / defence 1.23 against Rapid Vienna attack 1.07 / defence 0.92, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 18% | Draw 22% | Rapid Vienna 61%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 51%, Rapid Vienna 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rapid Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.