TSV Hartberg 1-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 12 as TSV Hartberg welcome Rapid Vienna to PROfertil ARENA. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 1W 1D 3L at PROfertil ARENA — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Rapid Vienna have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's away record: 0W 3D 2L from 5 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (TSV Hartberg) versus 1.20 (Rapid Vienna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Rapid Vienna in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — TSV Hartberg 82% and Rapid Vienna 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 54% | Rapid Vienna 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.53 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.084 / defence 1.394 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.679 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.366. Data: 11 TSV Hartberg games / 11 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 41% | Draw 29% | Rapid Vienna 30%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Rapid Vienna 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 80% | Rapid Vienna 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 41% | Draw 29% | Rapid Vienna 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.53 / Rapid Vienna 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 1.084 / def 1.394 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.679 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Rapid Vienna xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 41% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Rapid Vienna's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
41%
2.45
29%
3.45
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.82
1.29
Rapid Vienna xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
7%
15.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.29 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 11 games, going 3W 4D 4L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rapid Vienna sit at 1.09 PPG from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.18 PPG, Rapid Vienna on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 1W 1D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Rapid Vienna have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (0W 3D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rapid Vienna's season.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.45 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 82% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 3W 4D 4L in their last 11 games (1.18 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Rapid Vienna away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 0.80 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Rapid Vienna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
3
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 5, Rapid Vienna have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Rapid Vienna 0-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — TSV Hartberg at 80%, Rapid Vienna at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (TSV Hartberg) and 20% (Rapid Vienna).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of TSV Hartberg's games and 80% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 20% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 12, as TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.53 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.29 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 1.08 / defence 1.39 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.68 / defence 1.12, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 41% | Draw 29% | Rapid Vienna 30%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 54%, Rapid Vienna 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.18 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.