TSV Hartberg 2-2 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lask Linz at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PROfertil ARENA plays host to TSV Hartberg versus Lask Linz in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 19 March 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
TSV Hartberg have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at PROfertil ARENA this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Lask Linz arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — TSV Hartberg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Lask Linz in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Lask Linz half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 57% versus Lask Linz 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 53% | Lask Linz 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.24 xG and Lask Linz 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.007 / defence 1.135 | Lask Linz attack 1.071 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.371. Data: 43 TSV Hartberg games / 43 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 28% | Draw 24% | Lask Linz 47%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | Lask Linz 2.13. Lask Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 70% | Lask Linz 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 28% | Draw 24% | Lask Linz 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.24 / Lask Linz 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 1.007 / def 1.135 | Lask Linz attack 1.071 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Lask Linz xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
TSV Hartberg 2 - 2 Lask Linz.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 28% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Lask Linz (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 1.01x the league average against Lask Linz's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lask Linz's attack (1.07x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
28%
3.51
24%
4.14
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.91
1.67
Lask Linz xG
3.51
28%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
19%
5.29
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
5%
18.58
14%
7.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.67 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 12W 14D 27L from 53 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lask Linz, meanwhile, have gone 18W 19D 16L across 53 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lask Linz by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over TSV Hartberg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 6W 7D 13L from 26 games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lask Linz's away record stands at 7W 11D 8L across 26 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.51 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz in 62%.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 12W 14D 27L in their last 53 games (0.94 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 18W 19D 16L in their last 53 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Lask Linz away?
Lask Linz's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 0.96 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 1-5 on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lask Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
TSV Hartberg
5
Draws
5
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 0, Lask Linz have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when TSV Hartberg 1-5 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for TSV Hartberg, 65% for Lask Linz — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (TSV Hartberg) and 42% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of TSV Hartberg's games and 65% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 42% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 22, as TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.24 xG and Lask Linz 1.67 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 1.01 / defence 1.14 against Lask Linz attack 1.07 / defence 0.90, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 28% | Draw 24% | Lask Linz 47%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 53%, Lask Linz 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Lask Linz's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.