TSV Hartberg 0-3 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg host Austria Vienna at PROfertil ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 September 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg at PROfertil ARENA this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Vienna stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Austria Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (TSV Hartberg) versus 1.60 (Austria Vienna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — TSV Hartberg 58% and Austria Vienna 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 47% | Austria Vienna 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.81 xG and Austria Vienna 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.979 / defence 0.888 | Austria Vienna attack 1.104 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.460. Austria Vienna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing TSV Hartberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 TSV Hartberg games / 29 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 46% | Draw 25% | Austria Vienna 30%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Austria Vienna 3.33. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is TSV Hartberg at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 40% | Austria Vienna 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 46% | Draw 25% | Austria Vienna 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.81 / Austria Vienna 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.979 / def 0.888 | Austria Vienna attack 1.104 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.460 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Austria Vienna xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
TSV Hartberg 0 - 3 Austria Vienna.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 46% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Austria Vienna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Austria Vienna's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
46%
2.18
25%
4.08
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
3.25
1.43
Austria Vienna xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
11%
9.14
5%
20.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.1 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.43 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 38 games, going 9W 13D 16L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.45 PPG from 38 outings (13W 16D 9L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Austria Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.05 PPG, Austria Vienna on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 5W 6D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.32 points per game from 19 outings (6W 7D 6L).
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.45 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna in 68%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
Austria Vienna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 9W 13D 16L in their last 38 games (1.05 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 13W 16D 9L in their last 38 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.11 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Austria Vienna go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
TSV Hartberg
1
Draws
6
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 3, Austria Vienna have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Austria Vienna 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 58%, Austria Vienna 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (TSV Hartberg) and 47% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 32% of games; Austria Vienna in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of TSV Hartberg's games and 58% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 47% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Austria Vienna run riot with a 0-3 hammering of TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat TSV Hartberg 0-3 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.81 xG and Austria Vienna 1.43 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. TSV Hartberg fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Austria Vienna outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.98 / defence 0.89 against Austria Vienna attack 1.10 / defence 1.27, drawn from 28/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 46% | Draw 25% | Austria Vienna 30%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Austria Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 47%, Austria Vienna 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.05 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.