TSV Hartberg 3-4 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg host Austria Vienna at PROfertil ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 September 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 3D 3L from 8 outings — a 1.12 PPG return. Last five: D D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.38 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg at PROfertil ARENA this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 home games — 0.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.33 lags behind their overall 1.12 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at PROfertil ARENA this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Vienna stand at 1W 5D 2L from 8 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.12 PPG (TSV Hartberg) versus 1.00 (Austria Vienna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games.
Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — TSV Hartberg 75% and Austria Vienna 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (TSV Hartberg 38% | Austria Vienna 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 0.88 xG and Austria Vienna 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.741 / defence 1.144 | Austria Vienna attack 0.867 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.363. TSV Hartberg's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 TSV Hartberg games / 8 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 20% | Draw 36% | Austria Vienna 44%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 5.00 | Draw 2.78 | Austria Vienna 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Vienna at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: TSV Hartberg 67% | Austria Vienna 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 20% | Draw 36% | Austria Vienna 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG TSV Hartberg 0.88 / Austria Vienna 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.741 / def 1.144 | Austria Vienna attack 0.867 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Austria Vienna xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
TSV Hartberg 3 - 4 Austria Vienna.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 20% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 44% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.38 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Austria Vienna (all comps): 1W-5D-2L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Austria Vienna's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
20%
4.89
36%
2.82
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.23
1.35
Austria Vienna xG
4.89
20%
Home win
2.82
36%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
5%
18.89
18%
5.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 14.6 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.35 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 8 games, going 2W 3D 3L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-D. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.00 PPG from 8 outings (1W 5D 2L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.12 PPG, Austria Vienna on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.12 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Austria Vienna in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 1W 5D 2L in their last 8 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 0.33 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Austria Vienna go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
TSV Hartberg
1
Draws
6
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 3, Austria Vienna have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Austria Vienna 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Austria Vienna see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 67%, Austria Vienna 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for TSV Hartberg and 33% for Austria Vienna.
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna in 33%; TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 33% of games; Austria Vienna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Austria Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 33% of Austria Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 33% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Vienna edge out TSV Hartberg 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat TSV Hartberg 3-4 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 0.88 xG and Austria Vienna 1.35 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. TSV Hartberg beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Austria Vienna outscored their 1.35 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.74 / defence 1.14 against Austria Vienna attack 0.87 / defence 1.01, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 20% | Draw 36% | Austria Vienna 44%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 38%, Austria Vienna 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.12 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.