TSV Hartberg 1-2 Admira Wacker – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Admira Wacker at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Relegation Round - 5 as TSV Hartberg welcome Admira Wacker to PROfertil ARENA. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's home record at PROfertil ARENA: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — TSV Hartberg are significantly better at PROfertil ARENA than their overall form suggests.
Admira Wacker — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Admira Wacker, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Admira Wacker away from home this season: 2W 7D 1L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Admira Wacker are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. TSV Hartberg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Admira Wacker in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for TSV Hartberg, 0 for Admira Wacker and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
TSV Hartberg trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Admira Wacker trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 54% versus Admira Wacker 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 38% | Admira Wacker 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.07 xG and Admira Wacker 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.843 / defence 1.209 | Admira Wacker attack 0.891 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.237. Data: 22 TSV Hartberg games / 22 Admira Wacker games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 30% | Draw 27% | Admira Wacker 43%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Admira Wacker 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Admira Wacker as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Admira Wacker offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: TSV Hartberg 60% | Admira Wacker 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 30% | Draw 27% | Admira Wacker 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.07 / Admira Wacker 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.843 / def 1.209 | Admira Wacker attack 0.891 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Admira Wacker (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Admira Wacker xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 2 Admira Wacker.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 30% chance of winning, Admira Wacker a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Admira Wacker the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Admira Wacker will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Admira Wacker?
Record (2 meetings): TSV Hartberg 0W | Draws 2 | Admira Wacker 0W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Admira Wacker in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Admira Wacker (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 0.84x the league average against Admira Wacker's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Admira Wacker's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Admira Wacker Win
30%
3.33
27%
3.66
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.40
1.33
Admira Wacker xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
8%
12.62
15%
6.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Admira Wacker expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.33 for Admira Wacker, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 26 games, going 5W 10D 11L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-D. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Admira Wacker sit at 1.00 PPG from 26 outings (5W 11D 10L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Admira Wacker is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 0.96 PPG, Admira Wacker on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 2W 5D 6L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Admira Wacker have taken 1.08 points per game from 13 outings (2W 8D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Admira Wacker are on 1.15 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Admira Wacker
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Admira Wacker in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 5W 10D 11L in their last 26 games (0.96 PPG), while Admira Wacker have gone 5W 11D 10L in their last 26 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Admira Wacker away?
Admira Wacker's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 0.85 PPG; Admira Wacker away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Admira Wacker specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
1
Admira Wacker
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Admira Wacker?
From 4 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 1, Admira Wacker have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Admira Wacker last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2022, when Admira Wacker 1-3 TSV Hartberg.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Admira Wacker are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — TSV Hartberg at 62%, Admira Wacker at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (TSV Hartberg) and 54% (Admira Wacker).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Admira Wacker away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Admira Wacker?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of TSV Hartberg's games and 69% of Admira Wacker's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 54% of Admira Wacker's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Admira Wacker tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Admira Wacker in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Admira Wacker edge out TSV Hartberg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Admira Wacker beat TSV Hartberg 1-2 at PROfertil ARENA, Relegation Round - 5, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.07 xG and Admira Wacker 1.33 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.84 / defence 1.21 against Admira Wacker attack 0.89 / defence 1.10, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 30% | Draw 27% | Admira Wacker 43%, with Admira Wacker to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 38%, Admira Wacker 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Admira Wacker's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 0.96 PPG, Admira Wacker 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Admira Wacker win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.