TSV Hartberg 1-1 Admira Wacker – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Admira Wacker at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 19 as TSV Hartberg welcome Admira Wacker to PROfertil ARENA. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 February 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's home record at PROfertil ARENA: 2W 3D 4L from 9 Bundesliga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Admira Wacker — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Admira Wacker, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Admira Wacker away from home this season: 1W 5D 3L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
TSV Hartberg are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 78% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for TSV Hartberg, 0 for Admira Wacker and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
TSV Hartberg trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Admira Wacker trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — TSV Hartberg 72% and Admira Wacker 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 50% | Admira Wacker 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.41 xG and Admira Wacker 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.992 / defence 1.268 | Admira Wacker attack 0.833 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.379. Data: 18 TSV Hartberg games / 18 Admira Wacker games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 36% | Draw 26% | Admira Wacker 38%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Admira Wacker 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Admira Wacker as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form TSV Hartberg (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Admira Wacker offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 78% | Admira Wacker 78% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 36% | Draw 26% | Admira Wacker 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.41 / Admira Wacker 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.992 / def 1.268 | Admira Wacker attack 0.833 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Admira Wacker (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Admira Wacker xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 1 Admira Wacker.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 36% chance of winning, Admira Wacker a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Admira Wacker the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Admira Wacker will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Admira Wacker?
Record (1 meetings): TSV Hartberg 0W | Draws 1 | Admira Wacker 0W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Admira Wacker in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Admira Wacker (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 0.99x the league average against Admira Wacker's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Admira Wacker's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Admira Wacker Win
36%
2.77
26%
3.92
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.86
1.46
Admira Wacker xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
8%
11.88
9%
10.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Admira Wacker expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.46 for Admira Wacker, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 18 games, going 5W 6D 7L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Admira Wacker sit at 0.89 PPG from 18 outings (3W 7D 8L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Admira Wacker is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.17 PPG, Admira Wacker on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 2W 3D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Admira Wacker have taken 0.89 points per game from 9 outings (1W 5D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Admira Wacker are on 1.17 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; Admira Wacker in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Admira Wacker
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Admira Wacker in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 5W 6D 7L in their last 18 games (1.17 PPG), while Admira Wacker have gone 3W 7D 8L in their last 18 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Admira Wacker away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.00 PPG; Admira Wacker away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Admira Wacker specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
1
Admira Wacker
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Admira Wacker?
From 4 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 1, Admira Wacker have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Admira Wacker last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2022, when Admira Wacker 1-3 TSV Hartberg.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Admira Wacker are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — TSV Hartberg at 78%, Admira Wacker at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for TSV Hartberg and 67% for Admira Wacker. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Admira Wacker away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Admira Wacker?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of TSV Hartberg's games and 78% of Admira Wacker's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Admira Wacker usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 67% of Admira Wacker's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Admira Wacker tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Admira Wacker in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg and Admira Wacker share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg and Admira Wacker finished level at 1-1 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.41 xG and Admira Wacker 1.46 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.99 / defence 1.27 against Admira Wacker attack 0.83 / defence 1.20, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 36% | Draw 26% | Admira Wacker 38%, with Admira Wacker to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 50%, Admira Wacker 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Admira Wacker's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.17 PPG, Admira Wacker 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.