Sturm Graz 3-2 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC meet at Merkur Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 October 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sturm Graz have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz at Merkur Arena this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Wolfsberger AC's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Sturm Graz's 2.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Wolfsberger AC's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sturm Graz, 0 for Wolfsberger AC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Wolfsberger AC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sturm Graz 63% and Wolfsberger AC 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sturm Graz 67% | Wolfsberger AC 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.47 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.073 / defence 0.608 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.168 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.767. Sturm Graz's defence rating of 0.608 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 Sturm Graz games / 33 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 40% | Draw 29% | Wolfsberger AC 31%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Wolfsberger AC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 50% | Wolfsberger AC 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 40% | Draw 29% | Wolfsberger AC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Sturm Graz 1.47 / Wolfsberger AC 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.073 / def 0.608 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.168 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.767 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Wolfsberger AC xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Sturm Graz 3 - 2 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 40% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (1 meetings): Sturm Graz 0W | Draws 1 | Wolfsberger AC 0W.
What form are Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Wolfsberger AC's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (1.17x) against Sturm Graz's defence (0.61x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
40%
2.48
29%
3.43
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.72
1.25
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
12%
8.70
7%
14.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.25 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz come into this having played 43 games, going 23W 11D 9L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wolfsberger AC sit at 1.42 PPG from 43 outings (18W 7D 18L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sturm Graz's home form reads 13W 5D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolfsberger AC have taken 1.48 points per game from 21 outings (9W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.63 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Wolfsberger AC in 70%.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 23W 11D 9L in their last 43 games (1.86 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 18W 7D 18L in their last 43 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.10 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Wolfsberger AC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Wolfsberger AC in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 4-0 on 3 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sturm Graz
4
Draws
3
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 3, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 2-2 Sturm Graz.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 57%, Wolfsberger AC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Sturm Graz and 76% for Wolfsberger AC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Sturm Graz's games and 67% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Sturm Graz's matches and 76% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out Wolfsberger AC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Wolfsberger AC 3-2 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.47 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.25 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sturm Graz beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.07 / defence 0.61 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.17 / defence 0.99, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 40% | Draw 29% | Wolfsberger AC 31%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 67%, Wolfsberger AC 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.