Sturm Graz 1-4 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC meet at Merkur Arena in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 May 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sturm Graz have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sturm Graz at Merkur Arena this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Wolfsberger AC's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Sturm Graz's 2.30 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Wolfsberger AC's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Wolfsberger AC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sturm Graz 67% and Wolfsberger AC 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sturm Graz 73% | Wolfsberger AC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.62 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.168 / defence 1.176 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.782 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.239. Wolfsberger AC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Sturm Graz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Sturm Graz games / 22 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 49% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 27%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Wolfsberger AC 3.70. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 60% | Wolfsberger AC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 9 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 49% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Sturm Graz 1.62 / Wolfsberger AC 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.168 / def 1.176 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.782 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Wolfsberger AC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Sturm Graz 1 - 4 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC is a Championship Round - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 49% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Wolfsberger AC's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (0.78x) against Sturm Graz's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
49%
2.06
25%
4.06
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.76
1.14
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
5%
18.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.14 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz come into this having played 30 games, going 16W 8D 6L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Wolfsberger AC sit at 1.37 PPG from 30 outings (12W 5D 13L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sturm Graz's home form reads 9W 4D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolfsberger AC have taken 1.20 points per game from 15 outings (5W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.40 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Current Season
Wolfsberger AC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 16W 8D 6L in their last 30 games (1.87 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 12W 5D 13L in their last 30 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.07 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 4-0 on 3 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sturm Graz
4
Draws
3
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 3, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 2-2 Sturm Graz.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 67%, Wolfsberger AC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Sturm Graz and 67% for Wolfsberger AC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sturm Graz's games and 53% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Sturm Graz's matches and 67% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wolfsberger AC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Sturm Graz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Sturm Graz 1-4 at Merkur Arena, Championship Round - 9, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.62 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.14 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC outscored their 1.14 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.17 / defence 1.18 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.78 / defence 1.21, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 49% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 27%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Wolfsberger AC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 73%, Wolfsberger AC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with Wolfsberger AC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.