Sturm Graz 3-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Merkur Arena to take on Sturm Graz. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 February 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sturm Graz stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sturm Graz have posted 4W 4D 2L at Merkur Arena — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Sturm Graz) versus 1.00 (TSV Hartberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sturm Graz register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, TSV Hartberg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sturm Graz 70% and TSV Hartberg 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 80% | TSV Hartberg 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.55 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.097 / defence 1.271 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.762 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.382. Data: 20 Sturm Graz games / 20 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 42% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 32%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | TSV Hartberg 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 70% | TSV Hartberg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 42% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Sturm Graz 1.55 / TSV Hartberg 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.097 / def 1.271 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.762 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.34
TSV Hartberg xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Sturm Graz 3 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 42% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 1.10x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
42%
2.41
26%
3.80
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.89
1.34
TSV Hartberg xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
11%
9.18
7%
14.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.34 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 9W 6D 5L from 20 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 8L across 20 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over TSV Hartberg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 4W 4D 2L from 10 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 3W 3D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sturm Graz are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.45 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; TSV Hartberg in 70%.
Last 20 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 9W 6D 5L in their last 20 games (1.65 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 5W 7D 8L in their last 20 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Sturm Graz's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 1.60 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Sturm Graz's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
0
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 7, TSV Hartberg have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when TSV Hartberg 2-4 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sturm Graz at 70%, TSV Hartberg at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Sturm Graz and 40% for TSV Hartberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Sturm Graz's games and 60% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Sturm Graz's matches and 40% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sturm Graz run riot with a 3-0 hammering of TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat TSV Hartberg 3-0 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.55 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.34 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sturm Graz beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. TSV Hartberg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.10 / defence 1.27 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.76 / defence 1.19, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 42% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 32%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 80%, TSV Hartberg 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.