Sturm Graz 1-0 Ried – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs Ried encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sturm Graz host Ried at Merkur Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 October 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sturm Graz — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's home record at Merkur Arena: 3W 1D 1L from 5 Bundesliga appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ried stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ried have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Sturm Graz have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 70%.
Ried in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sturm Graz 80% and Ried 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sturm Graz 90% | Ried 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 2.86 xG and Ried 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.329 / defence 1.109 | Ried attack 0.731 / defence 1.669. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.398. Sturm Graz carry an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — their λ of 2.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ried bring a strong defensive rating of 1.669 — this is suppressing Sturm Graz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Sturm Graz games / 10 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 71% | Draw 18% | Ried 10%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.41 | Draw 5.56 | Ried 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Sturm Graz (71%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.99. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.99 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.86 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 80% | Ried 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 71% | Draw 18% | Ried 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 66% | xG Sturm Graz 2.86 / Ried 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.329 / def 1.109 | Ried attack 0.731 / def 1.669 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.86
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Ried xG
66%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Ried kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Ried kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Ried?
Sturm Graz 1 - 0 Ried.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Ried part of?
Sturm Graz vs Ried is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 71% chance of winning, Ried a 10% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Sturm Graz and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Ried?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sturm Graz and Ried in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Ried (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Ried's defensive record (1.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.86. The same calculation in reverse, Ried's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.5%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.1%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
71%
1.40
18%
5.44
10%
9.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.86
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
3.99
1.13
Ried xG
1.40
71%
Home win
5.44
18%
Draw
9.58
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
6%
17.48
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
1%
167.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 2.86 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.13 for Ried, a combined total of 3.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Ried?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 6W 2D 2L from 10 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ried, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 3L across 10 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ried heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ried's away record stands at 0W 2D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ried's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sturm Graz are averaging 2.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.40 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Ried in 80%.
Last 10 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Ried
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Ried in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 games (2.00 PPG), while Ried have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Ried away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.00 PPG; Ried away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sturm Graz go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting Ried specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sturm Graz
2
Draws
0
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Ried?
From 6 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 4, Ried have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Ried?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sturm Graz at 80%, Ried at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Sturm Graz and 60% for Ried. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 80% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Ried?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Sturm Graz's games and 80% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Sturm Graz's matches and 60% of Ried's.
Do Sturm Graz and Ried tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ried in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out Ried 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Ried 1-0 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 2.86 xG and Ried 1.13 xG, a combined 3.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sturm Graz fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Ried landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.33 / defence 1.11 against Ried attack 0.73 / defence 1.67, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 71% | Draw 18% | Ried 10%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 93% and missed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 90%, Ried 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Ried's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Ried (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.