Sturm Graz 2-1 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur Arena plays host to Sturm Graz versus Red Bull Salzburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 30 July 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sturm Graz have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sturm Graz have posted 5W 3D 2L at Merkur Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Red Bull Salzburg (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Red Bull Salzburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Red Bull Salzburg are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 2.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Red Bull Salzburg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Red Bull Salzburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 70% versus Red Bull Salzburg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sturm Graz 73% | Red Bull Salzburg 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.59 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.052 / defence 1.028 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.025 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.643 / away 0.970. Data: 23 Sturm Graz games / 23 Red Bull Salzburg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 51% | Draw 25% | Red Bull Salzburg 24%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Red Bull Salzburg 4.17. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Red Bull Salzburg (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 70% | Red Bull Salzburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (23 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 51% | Draw 25% | Red Bull Salzburg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Sturm Graz 1.59 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.052 / def 1.028 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.025 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.643 / away 0.970 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Red Bull Salzburg xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Sturm Graz 2 - 1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 51% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Red Bull Salzburg's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Red Bull Salzburg's attack (1.02x) against Sturm Graz's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
The sample (23/23 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
51%
1.98
25%
3.99
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.61
1.02
Red Bull Salzburg xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
5%
20.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.02 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 16W 9D 8L from 33 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Red Bull Salzburg, meanwhile, have gone 26W 5D 2L across 33 games — 2.52 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Red Bull Salzburg by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sturm Graz heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 9W 4D 3L from 16 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Red Bull Salzburg's away record stands at 11W 3D 2L across 16 trips, a 2.25 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.42 scored and 0.58 conceded. Sturm Graz's scoring rate against Red Bull Salzburg's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Early Season
Red Bull Salzburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 16W 9D 8L in their last 33 games (1.73 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 26W 5D 2L in their last 33 (2.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 1.94 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 5-0 on 6 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Red Bull Salzburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sturm Graz
4
Draws
2
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 4, Red Bull Salzburg have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 1-1 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 69%, Red Bull Salzburg 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Sturm Graz and 56% for Red Bull Salzburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Red Bull Salzburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Sturm Graz's games and 56% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Sturm Graz's matches and 56% of Red Bull Salzburg's.
Do Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out Red Bull Salzburg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Red Bull Salzburg 2-1 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.59 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.02 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.05 / defence 1.03 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.02 / defence 0.92, drawn from 23/23 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 51% | Draw 25% | Red Bull Salzburg 24%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 73%, Red Bull Salzburg 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 1.73. Form was overturned, with Sturm Graz winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.