Sturm Graz 1-0 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur Arena plays host to Sturm Graz versus Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Friday 10 February 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sturm Graz have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Merkur Arena this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Sturm Graz. A 0.80 PPG lead over Rapid Vienna (2.20 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rapid Vienna in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sturm Graz 65% and Rapid Vienna 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 65% | Rapid Vienna 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.47 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.117 / defence 0.845 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.070 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.562. Data: 38 Sturm Graz games / 38 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 38% | Draw 26% | Rapid Vienna 36%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Rapid Vienna 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 60% | Rapid Vienna 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Friday 10 Feb 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 38% | Draw 26% | Rapid Vienna 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Sturm Graz 1.47 / Rapid Vienna 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.117 / def 0.845 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.070 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.562 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Rapid Vienna xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 10 February 2023 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Sturm Graz 1 - 0 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 38% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 1.12x the league average against Rapid Vienna's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rapid Vienna's attack (1.07x) against Sturm Graz's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
38%
2.60
26%
3.85
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.89
1.41
Rapid Vienna xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
9%
10.69
8%
12.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.41 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 25W 14D 9L from 48 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rapid Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 16L across 48 games — 1.46 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.85 PPG for Sturm Graz against 1.46 for Rapid Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 15W 5D 4L from 24 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rapid Vienna's away record stands at 8W 8D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.58 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Rapid Vienna in 67%.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 25W 14D 9L in their last 48 games (1.85 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 19W 13D 16L in their last 48 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.08 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Sturm Graz go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rapid Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sturm Graz
1
Draws
4
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 5, Rapid Vienna have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Sturm Graz 2-0 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Sturm Graz, 75% for Rapid Vienna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Sturm Graz and 58% for Rapid Vienna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sturm Graz's games and 75% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Sturm Graz's matches and 58% of Rapid Vienna's.
Do Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out Rapid Vienna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Rapid Vienna 1-0 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.47 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.41 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rapid Vienna landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.12 / defence 0.84 against Rapid Vienna attack 1.07 / defence 0.93, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 38% | Draw 26% | Rapid Vienna 36%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 65%, Rapid Vienna 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sturm Graz 1.85 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sturm Graz win broke the near-deadlock. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.