Sturm Graz 2-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur Arena plays host to Sturm Graz versus Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 17 April 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sturm Graz have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Merkur Arena this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Sturm Graz against 1.80 for Rapid Vienna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sturm Graz 62% and Rapid Vienna 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sturm Graz 73% | Rapid Vienna 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.60 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.197 / defence 1.183 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.954 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.237. Data: 22 Sturm Graz games / 22 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 42% | Draw 24% | Rapid Vienna 33%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Rapid Vienna 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 50% | Rapid Vienna 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 42% | Draw 24% | Rapid Vienna 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Sturm Graz 1.60 / Rapid Vienna 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.197 / def 1.183 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.954 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Rapid Vienna xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Sturm Graz 2 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 42% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 1.20x the league average against Rapid Vienna's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rapid Vienna's attack (0.95x) against Sturm Graz's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
42%
2.36
24%
4.14
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
3.00
1.40
Rapid Vienna xG
2.36
42%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
11%
9.52
7%
14.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.2 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.40 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 13W 7D 6L from 26 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rapid Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 8L across 26 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.77 PPG for Sturm Graz against 1.46 for Rapid Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 7W 4D 2L from 13 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rapid Vienna's away record stands at 3W 6D 4L across 13 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.62 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Rapid Vienna in 69%.
Last 26 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 13W 7D 6L in their last 26 games (1.77 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 10W 8D 8L in their last 26 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Sturm Graz's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 1.92 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Rapid Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Rapid Vienna in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Sturm Graz go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rapid Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sturm Graz
1
Draws
4
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 5, Rapid Vienna have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Sturm Graz 2-0 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Sturm Graz, 85% for Rapid Vienna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Sturm Graz and 54% for Rapid Vienna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sturm Graz's games and 85% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Sturm Graz's matches and 54% of Rapid Vienna's.
Do Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out Rapid Vienna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Rapid Vienna 2-1 at Merkur Arena, Championship Round - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.60 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.40 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.20 / defence 1.18 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.95 / defence 1.16, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 42% | Draw 24% | Rapid Vienna 33%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 73%, Rapid Vienna 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sturm Graz 1.77 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sturm Graz win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.