SCR Altach 2-1 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates WSG Wattens at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SCR Altach and WSG Wattens meet at CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 10. This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SCR Altach have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at CASHPOINT Arena, SCR Altach have gone 0W 5D 5L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at CASHPOINT Arena this season.
WSG Wattens (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, WSG Wattens have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
WSG Wattens arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — SCR Altach have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, WSG Wattens in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading Data
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 36% versus WSG Wattens 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 48% | WSG Wattens 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.04 xG and WSG Wattens 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.671 / defence 1.323 | WSG Wattens attack 0.856 / defence 1.351. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.239. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.671 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. WSG Wattens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.351 — this is suppressing SCR Altach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 SCR Altach games / 22 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 28% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 45%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | WSG Wattens 2.22. WSG Wattens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is WSG Wattens at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 30% | WSG Wattens 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 10 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Friday 20 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 28% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG SCR Altach 1.04 / WSG Wattens 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.671 / def 1.323 | WSG Wattens attack 0.856 / def 1.351 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.40
WSG Wattens xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens kick off?
SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 20 May 2022 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
SCR Altach 2 - 1 WSG Wattens.
Where is SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens part of?
SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens is a Relegation Round - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 28% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both SCR Altach and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and WSG Wattens?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SCR Altach and WSG Wattens in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. WSG Wattens (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SCR Altach's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against WSG Wattens's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — WSG Wattens's attack (0.86x) against SCR Altach's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
28%
3.58
27%
3.73
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.44
1.40
WSG Wattens xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
7%
14.59
16%
6.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.40 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SCR Altach's recent record stands at 6W 8D 17L from 31 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-W in the last five.
WSG Wattens, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 11L across 31 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours WSG Wattens by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SCR Altach heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SCR Altach have managed 1W 6D 8L from 15 games — 0.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
WSG Wattens's away record stands at 5W 3D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, WSG Wattens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SCR Altach are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.45 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Current Season
WSG Wattens
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 6W 8D 17L in their last 31 games (0.84 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 10W 10D 11L in their last 31 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or WSG Wattens away?
WSG Wattens's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.60 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SCR Altach won 3-0 on 26 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SCR Altach
3
Draws
3
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 4, WSG Wattens have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when SCR Altach 3-1 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and WSG Wattens?
SCR Altach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 40%, WSG Wattens 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (SCR Altach) and 67% (WSG Wattens).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 60% of games; WSG Wattens in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play WSG Wattens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 47% of WSG Wattens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of SCR Altach's recent games and 67% of WSG Wattens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SCR Altach defy the odds to beat WSG Wattens 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat WSG Wattens 2-1 at CASHPOINT Arena, Relegation Round - 10, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.04 xG and WSG Wattens 1.40 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. SCR Altach beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.67 / defence 1.32 against WSG Wattens attack 0.86 / defence 1.35, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 28% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 45%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual SCR Altach win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 48%, WSG Wattens 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, WSG Wattens arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with SCR Altach winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.53 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.