SCR Altach 0-3 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SCR Altach and WSG Wattens meet at CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SCR Altach have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at CASHPOINT Arena, SCR Altach have gone 1W 2D 4L this season (7 games, 0.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
WSG Wattens (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, WSG Wattens have posted 1W 2D 4L from 7 away outings — 0.71 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.57 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 43% versus WSG Wattens 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 36% | WSG Wattens 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.36 xG and WSG Wattens 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.661 / defence 1.310 | WSG Wattens attack 0.707 / defence 1.646. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.343. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.661 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. WSG Wattens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.646 — this is suppressing SCR Altach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 SCR Altach games / 15 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 38% | Draw 30% | WSG Wattens 33%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | WSG Wattens 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SCR Altach at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 57% | WSG Wattens 57% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 38% | Draw 30% | WSG Wattens 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG SCR Altach 1.36 / WSG Wattens 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.661 / def 1.310 | WSG Wattens attack 0.707 / def 1.646 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.25
WSG Wattens xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens kick off?
SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
SCR Altach 0 - 3 WSG Wattens.
Where is SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens part of?
SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 38% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SCR Altach and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and WSG Wattens?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SCR Altach and WSG Wattens in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SCR Altach's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against WSG Wattens's defensive record (1.65x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — WSG Wattens's attack (0.71x) against SCR Altach's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 14/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
38%
2.64
30%
3.38
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.60
1.25
WSG Wattens xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
11%
9.17
8%
11.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.25 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SCR Altach's recent record stands at 3W 4D 7L from 14 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
WSG Wattens, meanwhile, have gone 3W 6D 5L across 14 games — 1.07 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for SCR Altach against 1.07 for WSG Wattens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SCR Altach have managed 1W 2D 4L from 7 games — 0.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
WSG Wattens's away record stands at 1W 2D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
SCR Altach are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: WSG Wattens in 71%.
Last 14 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 3W 4D 7L in their last 14 games (0.93 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 3W 6D 5L in their last 14 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or WSG Wattens away?
SCR Altach's home record (0.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.71 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SCR Altach won 3-0 on 26 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SCR Altach
4
Draws
3
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 3, WSG Wattens have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when SCR Altach 0-0 WSG Wattens.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 57%, WSG Wattens 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (SCR Altach) and 71% (WSG Wattens). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 43% of games; WSG Wattens in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play WSG Wattens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of SCR Altach's games and 57% of WSG Wattens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of SCR Altach's matches and 71% of WSG Wattens's.
Do SCR Altach and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant WSG Wattens run riot with a 0-3 hammering of SCR Altach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat SCR Altach 0-3 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.36 xG and WSG Wattens 1.25 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. SCR Altach fell 1.4 short of their projected output. WSG Wattens outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.66 / defence 1.31 against WSG Wattens attack 0.71 / defence 1.65, drawn from 14/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 38% | Draw 30% | WSG Wattens 33%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual WSG Wattens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 36%, WSG Wattens 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.93 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the WSG Wattens win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.