SCR Altach 2-2 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Wolfsberger AC travel to CASHPOINT Arena to take on SCR Altach. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 July 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at CASHPOINT Arena, SCR Altach have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at CASHPOINT Arena this season.
Wolfsberger AC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Wolfsberger AC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wolfsberger AC away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (SCR Altach) versus 1.10 (Wolfsberger AC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 39% versus Wolfsberger AC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 52% | Wolfsberger AC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.46 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.883 / defence 1.086 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.995 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.681 / away 0.973. Data: 23 SCR Altach games / 23 Wolfsberger AC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 46% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 27%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Wolfsberger AC 3.70. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SCR Altach as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SCR Altach 30% | Wolfsberger AC 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (23 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 46% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG SCR Altach 1.46 / Wolfsberger AC 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.883 / def 1.086 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.995 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.681 / away 0.973 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Wolfsberger AC xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
SCR Altach 2 - 2 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 46% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 0.88x the league average against Wolfsberger AC's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
46%
2.16
27%
3.71
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.52
1.05
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
6%
16.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.05 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SCR Altach come into this having played 33 games, going 7W 8D 18L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for SCR Altach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Wolfsberger AC sit at 1.45 PPG from 33 outings (14W 6D 13L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wolfsberger AC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SCR Altach's home form reads 2W 6D 8L across 16 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolfsberger AC have taken 1.31 points per game from 16 outings (6W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SCR Altach are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.48 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC in 61%.
Last 33 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Early Season
Wolfsberger AC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 7W 8D 18L in their last 33 games (0.88 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 14W 6D 13L in their last 33 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.75 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2026, when Wolfsberger AC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SCR Altach
4
Draws
3
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 3, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when SCR Altach 1-4 Wolfsberger AC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 44%, Wolfsberger AC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (SCR Altach) and 69% (Wolfsberger AC).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 56% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Wolfsberger AC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 56% of Wolfsberger AC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of SCR Altach's recent games and 69% of Wolfsberger AC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC finished level at 2-2 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.46 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.99 / defence 0.98, drawn from 23/23 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 46% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 27%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 52%, Wolfsberger AC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.