SCR Altach 0-2 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Relegation Round - 5 sees Wolfsberger AC travel to CASHPOINT Arena to take on SCR Altach. The game is scheduled for Friday 28 April 2023, 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at CASHPOINT Arena, SCR Altach have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Wolfsberger AC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (SCR Altach) versus 1.10 (Wolfsberger AC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 47% versus Wolfsberger AC 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 55% | Wolfsberger AC 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.01 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.801 / defence 0.997 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.021 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.336. Data: 44 SCR Altach games / 44 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 28% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 45%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Wolfsberger AC 2.22. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SCR Altach 50% | Wolfsberger AC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Friday 28 Apr 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 28% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG SCR Altach 1.01 / Wolfsberger AC 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.801 / def 0.997 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.021 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Wolfsberger AC xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 28 April 2023 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
SCR Altach 0 - 2 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 28% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 0.80x the league average against Wolfsberger AC's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
28%
3.60
27%
3.66
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.37
1.36
Wolfsberger AC xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
37%
2.74
Win to Nil
7%
14.04
16%
6.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.36 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SCR Altach come into this having played 58 games, going 12W 15D 31L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-D. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wolfsberger AC sit at 1.29 PPG from 58 outings (22W 9D 27L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SCR Altach's home form reads 5W 10D 14L across 29 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolfsberger AC have taken 1.41 points per game from 29 outings (12W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SCR Altach are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.53 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC in 67%.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 12W 15D 31L in their last 58 games (0.88 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 22W 9D 27L in their last 58 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.86 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2026, when Wolfsberger AC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SCR Altach
4
Draws
3
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 3, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when SCR Altach 1-4 Wolfsberger AC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 52%, Wolfsberger AC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (SCR Altach) and 76% (Wolfsberger AC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of SCR Altach's games and 62% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of SCR Altach's matches and 76% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wolfsberger AC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SCR Altach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat SCR Altach 0-2 at CASHPOINT Arena, Relegation Round - 5, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.01 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.36 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SCR Altach fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.80 / defence 1.00 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.02 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 28% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 45%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 55%, Wolfsberger AC 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.