SCR Altach 1-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg meet at CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 October 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
SCR Altach's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SCR Altach have posted 2W 4D 4L at CASHPOINT Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SCR Altach have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, TSV Hartberg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
SCR Altach — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 48% versus TSV Hartberg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 60% | TSV Hartberg 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.46 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.995 / defence 1.151 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.825 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.767. Data: 33 SCR Altach games / 32 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 32% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 41%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | TSV Hartberg 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 80% | TSV Hartberg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 32% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG SCR Altach 1.46 / TSV Hartberg 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.995 / def 1.151 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.825 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.767 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.68
TSV Hartberg xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
SCR Altach 1 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg part of?
SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 32% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SCR Altach's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.82x) against SCR Altach's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 33/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
32%
3.12
27%
3.74
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
3.14
1.68
TSV Hartberg xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
19%
5.35
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
6%
16.70
10%
10.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.6 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.68 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, SCR Altach have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 9W 10D 23L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 10W 13D 19L from 42 games, 1.02 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for SCR Altach against 1.02 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SCR Altach have posted 0.76 PPG from 21 outings (3W 7D 11L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 5W 7D 9L from 21 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SCR Altach are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.31 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 9W 10D 23L in their last 42 games (0.88 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 10W 13D 19L in their last 42 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or TSV Hartberg away?
TSV Hartberg's away record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.76 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SCR Altach
6
Draws
4
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 0, TSV Hartberg have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when TSV Hartberg 0-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 57%, TSV Hartberg 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (SCR Altach) and 57% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 43% of games; TSV Hartberg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of SCR Altach's games and 57% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of SCR Altach's recent games and 57% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SCR Altach defy the odds to beat TSV Hartberg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat TSV Hartberg 1-0 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.46 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.68 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. TSV Hartberg landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.99 / defence 1.15 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.82 / defence 1.07, drawn from 33/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 32% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 41%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual SCR Altach win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 60%, TSV Hartberg 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.88 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SCR Altach win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.