SCR Altach 0-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg meet at CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 March 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
SCR Altach's overall Bundesliga record this term: 0W 0D 10L from 10 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SCR Altach have posted 1W 2D 7L at CASHPOINT Arena — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.00 — SCR Altach are significantly better at CASHPOINT Arena than their overall form suggests.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
TSV Hartberg arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (0.80 vs 0.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
SCR Altach — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 32% versus TSV Hartberg 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 41% | TSV Hartberg 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 0.81 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.532 / defence 1.412 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.700 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.235. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.532 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. TSV Hartberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.320 — this is suppressing SCR Altach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 SCR Altach games / 22 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 25% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 46%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | TSV Hartberg 2.17. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: SCR Altach 40% | TSV Hartberg 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 25% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG SCR Altach 0.81 / TSV Hartberg 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.532 / def 1.412 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.700 / def 1.320 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.22
TSV Hartberg xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
SCR Altach 0 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg part of?
SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 25% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SCR Altach's attacking strength (0.53x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.70x) against SCR Altach's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
25%
4.08
30%
3.37
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.03
1.22
TSV Hartberg xG
4.08
25%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
45%
2.25
Win to Nil
7%
13.82
20%
4.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 16.0 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.22 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, SCR Altach have picked up 0.59 PPG on a 3W 4D 15L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 5W 7D 10L from 22 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, TSV Hartberg are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SCR Altach.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SCR Altach have posted 0.45 PPG from 11 outings (1W 2D 8L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 3W 3D 5L from 11 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, TSV Hartberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SCR Altach are averaging 0.45 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.32 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: TSV Hartberg in 64%.
Last 22 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 3W 4D 15L in their last 22 games (0.59 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 5W 7D 10L in their last 22 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or TSV Hartberg away?
TSV Hartberg's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.45 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SCR Altach
6
Draws
4
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 0, TSV Hartberg have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when TSV Hartberg 0-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 36%, TSV Hartberg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (SCR Altach) and 46% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 64% of games; TSV Hartberg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 54% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of SCR Altach's recent games and 46% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at SCR Altach's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg finished level at 0-0 at CASHPOINT Arena, Relegation Round - 1, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 0.81 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.22 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SCR Altach fell 0.8 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.53 / defence 1.41 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.70 / defence 1.32, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 25% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 46%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 41%, TSV Hartberg 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 64% of games, a blank that repeated today.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.59. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SCR Altach (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.