SCR Altach 1-1 Ried – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs Ried fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ried make the trip to CASHPOINT Arena to face SCR Altach in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 September 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
SCR Altach (all games): 2W 1D 3L across 6 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.17 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SCR Altach's form when playing at home: 1W 0D 2L across 3 games at CASHPOINT Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ried have collected 1.67 PPG across 6 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 1D 2L. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.17 per game is modest, conceding 2.17 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.17 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ried have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ried away from home this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 3.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.67 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Ried are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.67 vs 1.17). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SCR Altach have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Ried in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ried goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SCR Altach 67% and Ried 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SCR Altach 67% | Ried 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.80 xG and Ried 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.868 / defence 1.228 | Ried attack 0.694 / defence 1.751. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.314. Ried bring a strong defensive rating of 1.751 — this is suppressing SCR Altach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 SCR Altach games / 6 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 50% | Draw 30% | Ried 20%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Ried 5.00. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SCR Altach are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ried (1.67 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 67% | Ried 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 50% | Draw 30% | Ried 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG SCR Altach 1.80 / Ried 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.868 / def 1.228 | Ried attack 0.694 / def 1.751 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Ried xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Ried kick off?
SCR Altach vs Ried kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Ried?
SCR Altach 1 - 1 Ried.
Where is SCR Altach vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Ried part of?
SCR Altach vs Ried is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 50% chance of winning, Ried a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SCR Altach and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Ried?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SCR Altach and Ried in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Ried (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 2.17 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 0.87x the league average against Ried's defence at 1.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ried's attack (0.69x) against SCR Altach's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
50%
2.00
30%
3.37
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.92
1.12
Ried xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
3%
29.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.9 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.12 for Ried, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 6 outings, SCR Altach have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 2W 1D 3L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SCR Altach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ried's form line: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games, 1.67 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Ried, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Ried are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SCR Altach.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SCR Altach have posted 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
On the road, Ried have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ried's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SCR Altach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SCR Altach are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.17 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SCR Altach have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Ried in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Early Season
Ried
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Ried in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Ried have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Ried away?
SCR Altach's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.00 PPG; Ried away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ried won 3-0 on 13 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ried — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SCR Altach
2
Draws
3
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Ried?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 5, Ried have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when SCR Altach 2-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Ried?
SCR Altach have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for SCR Altach, 67% for Ried — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for SCR Altach and 67% for Ried. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 33% of games; Ried in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Ried?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SCR Altach's games and 67% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SCR Altach's matches and 67% of Ried's.
Do SCR Altach and Ried tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ried in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach and Ried share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 7, as SCR Altach and Ried drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.80 xG and Ried 1.12 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SCR Altach fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.87 / defence 1.23 against Ried attack 0.69 / defence 1.75, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 50% | Draw 30% | Ried 20%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 67%, Ried 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Ried's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ried arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ried (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.