SCR Altach 1-1 Ried – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs Ried fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ried make the trip to CASHPOINT Arena to face SCR Altach in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 April 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
SCR Altach (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at CASHPOINT Arena this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Ried have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for SCR Altach, 0.60 for Ried — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SCR Altach lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 1–2 with Ried winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Ried goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 46% versus Ried 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 56% | Ried 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.13 xG and Ried 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.793 / defence 0.997 | Ried attack 0.851 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.336. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 SCR Altach games / 44 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 36% | Draw 29% | Ried 36%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Ried 2.78. The draw (29%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 29% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 50% | Ried 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 36% | Draw 29% | Ried 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG SCR Altach 1.13 / Ried 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.793 / def 0.997 | Ried attack 0.851 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Draw (29%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Ried xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Ried kick off?
SCR Altach vs Ried kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Ried?
SCR Altach 1 - 1 Ried.
Where is SCR Altach vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Ried part of?
SCR Altach vs Ried is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 36% chance of winning, Ried a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both SCR Altach and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Ried?
Record (4 meetings): SCR Altach 2W | Draws 1 | Ried 1W.
What form are SCR Altach and Ried in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Ried (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 0.79x the league average against Ried's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ried's attack (0.85x) against SCR Altach's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
36%
2.80
29%
3.49
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.27
1.13
Ried xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
11%
8.70
11%
8.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.8 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.13 for Ried, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, SCR Altach have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 12W 14D 31L record — L-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ried's form line: 12W 20D 25L from 57 games, 0.98 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for SCR Altach against 0.98 for Ried. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SCR Altach have posted 0.86 PPG from 28 outings (5W 9D 14L).
On the road, Ried have gone 4W 7D 17L from 28 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SCR Altach are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.02 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried in 61%.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Ried
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Ried in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 12W 14D 31L in their last 57 games (0.88 PPG), while Ried have gone 12W 20D 25L in their last 57 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Ried away?
SCR Altach's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.86 PPG; Ried away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ried won 3-0 on 13 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ried — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SCR Altach
2
Draws
3
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Ried?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 5, Ried have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when SCR Altach 2-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Ried?
SCR Altach have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 50%, Ried 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (SCR Altach) and 36% (Ried).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 43% of games; Ried in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Ried?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 50% of Ried's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of SCR Altach's recent games and 36% of Ried's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Ried tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ried in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach and Ried share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at CASHPOINT Arena, Relegation Round - 4, as SCR Altach and Ried drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.13 xG and Ried 1.13 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.79 / defence 1.00 against Ried attack 0.85 / defence 1.03, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 36% | Draw 29% | Ried 36%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 56%, Ried 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Ried's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.88 PPG, Ried 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.