SCR Altach 2-3 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 11 as SCR Altach welcome Red Bull Salzburg to CASHPOINT Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SCR Altach have posted 2W 5D 3L at CASHPOINT Arena — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Red Bull Salzburg stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Red Bull Salzburg are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for SCR Altach, 1 for Red Bull Salzburg and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 0–4 with Red Bull Salzburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Red Bull Salzburg in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 45% versus Red Bull Salzburg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 57% | Red Bull Salzburg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 0.91 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 2.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.919 / defence 1.122 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.336 / defence 0.723. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.716. Red Bull Salzburg's defence strength of 0.723 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Red Bull Salzburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.336 — the away xG of 2.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 SCR Altach games / 32 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 9% | Draw 20% | Red Bull Salzburg 71%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 11.11 | Draw 5.00 | Red Bull Salzburg 1.41. The model has a clear lean to Red Bull Salzburg (71%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Red Bull Salzburg are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 70% | Red Bull Salzburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 9% | Draw 20% | Red Bull Salzburg 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 57% | xG SCR Altach 0.91 / Red Bull Salzburg 2.57 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.919 / def 1.122 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.336 / def 0.723 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.716 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
2.57
Red Bull Salzburg xG
57%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg?
SCR Altach 2 - 3 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 9% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 71% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg?
Record (2 meetings): SCR Altach 0W | Draws 1 | Red Bull Salzburg 1W.
What form are SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 0.92x the league average against Red Bull Salzburg's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 2.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-3 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
9%
11.05
20%
5.06
71%
1.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 3
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
3.48
2.57
Red Bull Salzburg xG
11.05
9%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
1.40
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
8%
13.09
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
1%
144.66
29%
3.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.9 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for SCR Altach and 2.57 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, SCR Altach have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 9W 10D 23L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Red Bull Salzburg's form line: 32W 7D 3L from 42 games, 2.45 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Red Bull Salzburg are the form team by 1.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SCR Altach.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SCR Altach have posted 0.80 PPG from 20 outings (3W 7D 10L).
On the road, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 14W 3D 3L from 20 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SCR Altach are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.38 scored and 0.57 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 9W 10D 23L in their last 42 games (0.88 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 32W 7D 3L in their last 42 (2.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.80 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 2.25 PPG.
Have SCR Altach or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SCR Altach have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2022, when Red Bull Salzburg won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SCR Altach
5
Draws
5
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 0, Red Bull Salzburg have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when SCR Altach 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 55%, Red Bull Salzburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SCR Altach) and 60% (Red Bull Salzburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 50%; SCR Altach have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Red Bull Salzburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 50% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of SCR Altach's matches and 60% of Red Bull Salzburg's.
Do SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Red Bull Salzburg edge out SCR Altach 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat SCR Altach 2-3 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 0.91 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 2.57 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. SCR Altach beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.92 / defence 1.12 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.34 / defence 0.72, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 9% | Draw 20% | Red Bull Salzburg 71%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 57%, Red Bull Salzburg 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.