SCR Altach 2-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as SCR Altach take on Rapid Vienna.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SCR Altach host Rapid Vienna at CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 August 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SCR Altach — All Games: 1W 0D 2L from 3 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rapid Vienna stand at 1W 1D 1L from 3 Bundesliga matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Rapid Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SCR Altach at 1.00 PPG versus Rapid Vienna's 1.33. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
SCR Altach in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Rapid Vienna in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 67% versus Rapid Vienna 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 67% | Rapid Vienna 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.10 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.768 / defence 1.120 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.813 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.341. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 SCR Altach games / 3 Rapid Vienna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 29% | Draw 36% | Rapid Vienna 35%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 3.45 | Draw 2.78 | Rapid Vienna 2.86. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: SCR Altach 67% | Rapid Vienna 33%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 29% | Draw 36% | Rapid Vienna 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 51% | xG SCR Altach 1.10 / Rapid Vienna 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.768 / def 1.120 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.813 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Rapid Vienna xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna?
SCR Altach 2 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna part of?
SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 29% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 35% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-L. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SCR Altach's attack rating (0.77) and Rapid Vienna's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.44
36%
2.78
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.32
1.22
Rapid Vienna xG
3.44
29%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
9%
11.65
12%
8.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.22 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SCR Altach come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 0D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L. It's still early in the season for SCR Altach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Rapid Vienna sit at 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L), a run that reads L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SCR Altach on 1.00 PPG, Rapid Vienna on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
SCR Altach are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SCR Altach have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Early Season
Rapid Vienna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have SCR Altach or Rapid Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
SCR Altach have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Rapid Vienna in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2025, when Rapid Vienna won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SCR Altach
2
Draws
7
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 1, Rapid Vienna have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when SCR Altach 1-1 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 67%, Rapid Vienna 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (SCR Altach) and 33% (Rapid Vienna).
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna in 33%; SCR Altach have failed to score in 33% of games; Rapid Vienna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Rapid Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 33% of Rapid Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of SCR Altach's recent games and 33% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SCR Altach defy the odds to beat Rapid Vienna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat Rapid Vienna 2-1 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.10 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.22 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. SCR Altach beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.77 / defence 1.12 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.81 / defence 1.10, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 29% | Draw 36% | Rapid Vienna 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual SCR Altach win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 67%, Rapid Vienna 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 1.00 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SCR Altach win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Rapid Vienna shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.