SCR Altach 0-1 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs Lask Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SCR Altach and Lask Linz meet at CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 February 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
SCR Altach (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach's home record at CASHPOINT Arena: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for SCR Altach against 1.10 for Lask Linz. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SCR Altach register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Lask Linz in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SCR Altach lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 1–4 with Lask Linz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Lask Linz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 48% versus Lask Linz 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 58% | Lask Linz 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.21 xG and Lask Linz 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.960 / defence 1.069 | Lask Linz attack 1.022 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.484. Data: 38 SCR Altach games / 38 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 29% | Draw 25% | Lask Linz 47%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Lask Linz 2.13. Lask Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 80% | Lask Linz 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Feb 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 29% | Draw 25% | Lask Linz 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG SCR Altach 1.21 / Lask Linz 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.960 / def 1.069 | Lask Linz attack 1.022 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.484 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Lask Linz xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Lask Linz kick off?
SCR Altach vs Lask Linz kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 12 February 2023 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Lask Linz?
SCR Altach 0 - 1 Lask Linz.
Where is SCR Altach vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Lask Linz part of?
SCR Altach vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 29% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SCR Altach and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Lask Linz?
Record (1 meetings): SCR Altach 0W | Draws 0 | Lask Linz 1W.
What form are SCR Altach and Lask Linz in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Lask Linz (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SCR Altach's attack rating (0.96) and Lask Linz's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lask Linz's attack (1.02x) against SCR Altach's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
29%
3.50
25%
4.08
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.83
1.62
Lask Linz xG
3.50
29%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
6%
17.73
14%
7.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.62 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, SCR Altach have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 11W 11D 26L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lask Linz's form line: 15W 18D 15L from 48 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for SCR Altach against 1.31 for Lask Linz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SCR Altach have posted 0.87 PPG from 23 outings (4W 8D 11L).
On the road, Lask Linz have gone 5W 10D 8L from 23 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
SCR Altach are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.54 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz in 65%.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 11W 11D 26L in their last 48 games (0.92 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 15W 18D 15L in their last 48 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Lask Linz away?
Lask Linz's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.87 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 4-1 on 27 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lask Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
SCR Altach
2
Draws
6
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 2, Lask Linz have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Lask Linz 1-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 56%, Lask Linz 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (SCR Altach) and 44% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 39% of games; Lask Linz in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of SCR Altach's games and 65% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of SCR Altach's recent games and 44% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Lask Linz tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lask Linz edge out SCR Altach 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat SCR Altach 0-1 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.21 xG and Lask Linz 1.62 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SCR Altach fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.96 / defence 1.07 against Lask Linz attack 1.02 / defence 0.87, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 29% | Draw 25% | Lask Linz 47%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 58%, Lask Linz 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lask Linz's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.92 PPG, Lask Linz 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Lask Linz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.