SCR Altach 0-1 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 81%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs Lask Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SCR Altach and Lask Linz meet at CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 July 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 0.71 xG and Lask Linz 3.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Lask Linz attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 3.069. Data: 0 SCR Altach games / 0 Lask Linz games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 4% | Draw 14% | Lask Linz 81%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 25.00 | Draw 7.14 | Lask Linz 1.23. The model has a clear lean to Lask Linz (81%) — a 77pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 81% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 4% | Draw 14% | Lask Linz 81% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 50% | xG SCR Altach 0.71 / Lask Linz 3.00 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Lask Linz attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 3.069 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
3.00
Lask Linz xG
50%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Lask Linz kick off?
SCR Altach vs Lask Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Lask Linz?
SCR Altach 0 - 1 Lask Linz.
Where is SCR Altach vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Lask Linz part of?
SCR Altach vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 4% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 81% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both SCR Altach and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Lask Linz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SCR Altach and Lask Linz in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SCR Altach's attack rating (0.85) and Lask Linz's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lask Linz's attack (0.85x) against SCR Altach's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 3.00.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 0-3 (11.1%), 0-4 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
4%
23.53
14%
7.00
81%
1.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
11.1%
Away win
0 – 4
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
3.71
3.00
Lask Linz xG
23.53
4%
Home win
7.00
14%
Draw
1.23
81%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
5%
20.09
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
0%
–
40%
2.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 5.0 |
| 1 | 1.7 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.5 |
| 2 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for SCR Altach and 3.00 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 3.71.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Lask Linz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Pre-Season
Lask Linz
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 4-1 on 27 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lask Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
SCR Altach
2
Draws
6
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 2, Lask Linz have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Lask Linz 1-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Lask Linz edge out SCR Altach 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat SCR Altach 0-1 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 0.71 xG and Lask Linz 3.00 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lask Linz landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Lask Linz attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 4% | Draw 14% | Lask Linz 81%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 81%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.