SCR Altach 0-2 Admira Wacker – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Admira Wacker at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 21 as SCR Altach welcome Admira Wacker to CASHPOINT Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SCR Altach stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at CASHPOINT Arena, SCR Altach have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Admira Wacker — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Admira Wacker, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Admira Wacker's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SCR Altach 0.40 PPG, Admira Wacker 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for SCR Altach, 1 for Admira Wacker and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Admira Wacker winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
SCR Altach in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
Admira Wacker in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 35% versus Admira Wacker 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 40% | Admira Wacker 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 0.78 xG and Admira Wacker 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.569 / defence 1.333 | Admira Wacker attack 0.806 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.371. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.569 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 SCR Altach games / 20 Admira Wacker games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 19% | Draw 28% | Admira Wacker 53%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 5.26 | Draw 3.57 | Admira Wacker 1.89. Admira Wacker hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Admira Wacker as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Admira Wacker offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: SCR Altach 40% | Admira Wacker 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 19% | Draw 28% | Admira Wacker 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG SCR Altach 0.78 / Admira Wacker 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.569 / def 1.333 | Admira Wacker attack 0.806 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Admira Wacker (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Admira Wacker xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker kick off?
SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker?
SCR Altach 0 - 2 Admira Wacker.
Where is SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker part of?
SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 19% chance of winning, Admira Wacker a 53% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Admira Wacker the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both SCR Altach and Admira Wacker will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Admira Wacker?
Record (1 meetings): SCR Altach 0W | Draws 0 | Admira Wacker 1W.
What form are SCR Altach and Admira Wacker in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Admira Wacker (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 0.57x the league average against Admira Wacker's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Admira Wacker's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Admira Wacker Win
19%
5.24
28%
3.54
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.26
1.47
Admira Wacker xG
5.24
19%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
4%
22.87
24%
4.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 15.4 | 11.4 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Admira Wacker expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.47 for Admira Wacker, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, SCR Altach have picked up 0.65 PPG on a 3W 4D 13L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Admira Wacker's form line: 3W 8D 9L from 20 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Admira Wacker is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SCR Altach on 0.65 PPG, Admira Wacker on 0.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SCR Altach have posted 0.50 PPG from 10 outings (1W 2D 7L).
On the road, Admira Wacker have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Admira Wacker come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SCR Altach are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Admira Wacker are on 1.10 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Admira Wacker in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Admira Wacker
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Admira Wacker in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 3W 4D 13L in their last 20 games (0.65 PPG), while Admira Wacker have gone 3W 8D 9L in their last 20 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Admira Wacker away?
Admira Wacker's away record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.50 PPG; Admira Wacker away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SCR Altach and Admira Wacker runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2022, when SCR Altach won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Admira Wacker specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
SCR Altach
1
Draws
2
Admira Wacker
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Admira Wacker?
From 4 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 1, Admira Wacker have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Admira Wacker last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2022, when Admira Wacker 0-3 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Admira Wacker?
Admira Wacker have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Admira Wacker are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 40%, Admira Wacker 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (SCR Altach) and 60% (Admira Wacker).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Admira Wacker away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Admira Wacker?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of SCR Altach's games and 80% of Admira Wacker's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of SCR Altach's recent games and 60% of Admira Wacker's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Admira Wacker tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Admira Wacker in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Admira Wacker cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SCR Altach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Admira Wacker beat SCR Altach 0-2 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 0.78 xG and Admira Wacker 1.47 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.57 / defence 1.33 against Admira Wacker attack 0.81 / defence 1.15, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 19% | Draw 28% | Admira Wacker 53%, with Admira Wacker to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 40%, Admira Wacker 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Admira Wacker's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.65 PPG, Admira Wacker 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Admira Wacker win broke the near-deadlock. Admira Wacker (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.