Ried 3-2 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ried at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ried vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ried and WSG Wattens meet at josko ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 February 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ried have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 0L across 9 games at josko ARENA this term (2.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.11 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Ried are significantly better at josko ARENA than their overall form suggests.
WSG Wattens's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 5L across 9 road games this term (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 2.56 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Ried, 1.20 for WSG Wattens — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Ried half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
WSG Wattens half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ried 74% and WSG Wattens 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 63% | WSG Wattens 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 2.00 xG and WSG Wattens 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 1.073 / defence 1.121 | WSG Wattens attack 0.779 / defence 1.569. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.388. WSG Wattens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.569 — this is suppressing Ried's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Ried games / 19 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 55% | Draw 23% | WSG Wattens 22%. Fair-value odds: Ried 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | WSG Wattens 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Ried (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ried as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ried 78% | WSG Wattens 44% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: josko ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 55% | Draw 23% | WSG Wattens 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Ried 2.00 / WSG Wattens 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 1.073 / def 1.121 | WSG Wattens attack 0.779 / def 1.569 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Ried (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.21
WSG Wattens xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Ried vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at josko ARENA.
What was the final score in Ried vs WSG Wattens?
Ried 3 - 2 WSG Wattens.
Where is Ried vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at josko ARENA.
What competition is Ried vs WSG Wattens part of?
Ried vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 55% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ried the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Ried and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and WSG Wattens?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ried and WSG Wattens in?
Ried (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ried's attack at 1.07x the league average against WSG Wattens's defence at 1.57x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — WSG Wattens's attack (0.78x) against Ried's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ried Win
55%
1.82
23%
4.39
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Ried xG
Total xG
3.22
1.21
WSG Wattens xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
13%
7.42
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
3%
33.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Ried and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Ried and 1.21 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs WSG Wattens?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ried come into this having played 19 games, going 6W 6D 7L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, WSG Wattens sit at 1.05 PPG from 19 outings (4W 8D 7L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Ried against 1.05 for WSG Wattens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ried's home form reads 5W 4D 0L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Ried are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, WSG Wattens have taken 0.89 points per game from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ried come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ried are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.42 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; WSG Wattens in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 6W 6D 7L in their last 19 games (1.26 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 4W 8D 7L in their last 19 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or WSG Wattens away?
Ried's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 2.11 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ried have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Ried
3
Draws
5
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, Ried have won 2, WSG Wattens have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ried and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when WSG Wattens 1-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Ried and WSG Wattens?
WSG Wattens have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ried 78%, WSG Wattens 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Ried and 78% for WSG Wattens. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play WSG Wattens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Ried's games and 44% of WSG Wattens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ried vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Ried's matches and 78% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Ried and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ried edge out WSG Wattens 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ried beat WSG Wattens 3-2 at josko ARENA, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 2.00 xG and WSG Wattens 1.21 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ried beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 1.07 / defence 1.12 against WSG Wattens attack 0.78 / defence 1.57, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 55% | Draw 23% | WSG Wattens 22%, with Ried to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 63%, WSG Wattens 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ried 1.26 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ried win broke the near-deadlock. Ried (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.