Ried 1-1 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates WSG Wattens at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ried vs WSG Wattens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ried and WSG Wattens meet at josko ARENA in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 3. This fixture gets under way on Friday 14 April 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ried have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at josko ARENA this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
WSG Wattens's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, WSG Wattens are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ried have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, WSG Wattens in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
WSG Wattens hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 0–2 with WSG Wattens winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. WSG Wattens have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Ried half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
WSG Wattens half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ried 61% versus WSG Wattens 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 46% | WSG Wattens 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.01 xG and WSG Wattens 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 0.755 / defence 1.001 | WSG Wattens attack 0.953 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.335. Ried's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Ried games / 44 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 29% | Draw 28% | WSG Wattens 43%. Fair-value odds: Ried 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | WSG Wattens 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates WSG Wattens as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Ried 60% | WSG Wattens 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: josko ARENA • Kick-off: Friday 14 Apr 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 29% | Draw 28% | WSG Wattens 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Ried 1.01 / WSG Wattens 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 0.755 / def 1.001 | WSG Wattens attack 0.953 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.27
WSG Wattens xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Ried vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 14 April 2023 at josko ARENA.
What was the final score in Ried vs WSG Wattens?
Ried 1 - 1 WSG Wattens.
Where is Ried vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at josko ARENA.
What competition is Ried vs WSG Wattens part of?
Ried vs WSG Wattens is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 29% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ried and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and WSG Wattens?
Record (4 meetings): Ried 0W | Draws 0 | WSG Wattens 4W.
What form are Ried and WSG Wattens in?
Ried (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ried's attack at 0.76x the league average against WSG Wattens's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — WSG Wattens's attack (0.95x) against Ried's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
29%
3.41
28%
3.55
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Ried xG
Total xG
2.28
1.27
WSG Wattens xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
8%
12.20
16%
6.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Ried and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Ried and 1.27 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ried come into this having played 56 games, going 12W 19D 25L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, WSG Wattens sit at 1.27 PPG from 56 outings (20W 11D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Ried against 1.27 for WSG Wattens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ried's home form reads 8W 12D 8L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, WSG Wattens have taken 1.18 points per game from 28 outings (10W 3D 15L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ried are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.46 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 12W 19D 25L in their last 56 games (0.98 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 20W 11D 25L in their last 56 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or WSG Wattens away?
Ried's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 1.29 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ried have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Ried
3
Draws
5
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, Ried have won 2, WSG Wattens have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ried and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when WSG Wattens 1-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Ried and WSG Wattens?
WSG Wattens have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ried 71%, WSG Wattens 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Ried and 68% for WSG Wattens. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play WSG Wattens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Ried's games and 54% of WSG Wattens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ried vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Ried's matches and 68% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Ried and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ried and WSG Wattens share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at josko ARENA, Relegation Round - 3, as Ried and WSG Wattens drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.01 xG and WSG Wattens 1.27 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.76 / defence 1.00 against WSG Wattens attack 0.95 / defence 0.96, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 29% | Draw 28% | WSG Wattens 43%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 46%, WSG Wattens 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ried 0.98 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.