Ried 1-3 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ried at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ried vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
josko ARENA plays host to Ried versus TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 8 April 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ried have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried at josko ARENA this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Ried against 0.80 for TSV Hartberg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Ried 1W, TSV Hartberg 2W, 3D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with TSV Hartberg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Ried — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ried 60% versus TSV Hartberg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 46% | TSV Hartberg 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.11 xG and TSV Hartberg 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 0.747 / defence 1.001 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.726 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.335. Ried's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Ried games / 44 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 39% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 31%. Fair-value odds: Ried 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | TSV Hartberg 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ried are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ried if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ried 60% | TSV Hartberg 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: josko ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 39% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Ried 1.11 / TSV Hartberg 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 0.747 / def 1.001 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.726 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Ried (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Ried xG
Expected Goals
0.97
TSV Hartberg xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Ried vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 8 April 2023 at josko ARENA.
What was the final score in Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Ried 1 - 3 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Ried vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at josko ARENA.
What competition is Ried vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Ried vs TSV Hartberg is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 39% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ried the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Ried and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and TSV Hartberg?
Record (6 meetings): Ried 1W | Draws 3 | TSV Hartberg 2W.
What form are Ried and TSV Hartberg in?
Ried (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ried's attack rating (0.75) and TSV Hartberg's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.73x) against Ried's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ried Win
39%
2.59
30%
3.33
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Ried xG
Total xG
2.08
0.97
TSV Hartberg xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
10%
9.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 12.1 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Ried and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Ried and 0.97 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ried come into this having played 55 games, going 12W 19D 24L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 0.93 PPG from 55 outings (12W 15D 28L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Ried against 0.93 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Ried's home form reads 8W 12D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 0.93 points per game from 27 outings (6W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ried come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ried are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.18 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 12W 19D 24L in their last 55 games (1.00 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 12W 15D 28L in their last 55 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Ried's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 1.33 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
TSV Hartberg go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ried have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Ried
3
Draws
6
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Ried have won 1, TSV Hartberg have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ried and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when TSV Hartberg 2-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Ried and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ried 70%, TSV Hartberg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Ried) and 52% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Ried's games and 48% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ried vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Ried's recent games and 52% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ried and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ried.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Ried 1-3 at josko ARENA, Relegation Round - 2, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.11 xG and TSV Hartberg 0.97 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. TSV Hartberg outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.75 / defence 1.00 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.73 / defence 1.08, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 39% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 31%, with Ried to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 46%, TSV Hartberg 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ried 1.00 PPG, TSV Hartberg 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. Ried (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.