Ried 2-1 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ried at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ried vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
josko ARENA plays host to Ried versus SCR Altach in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 11 December 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ried's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at josko ARENA, Ried have gone 4W 4D 0L this season (8 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ried are significantly better at josko ARENA than their overall form suggests.
SCR Altach (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach away from home this season: 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Ried's 1.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of SCR Altach's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Ried half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
SCR Altach half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ried 71% versus SCR Altach 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 59% | SCR Altach 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.47 xG and SCR Altach 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 1.082 / defence 1.145 | SCR Altach attack 0.513 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.195 / away 1.277. Data: 17 Ried games / 17 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 54% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 19%. Fair-value odds: Ried 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | SCR Altach 5.26. Ried hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ried as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ried if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ried 75% | SCR Altach 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: josko ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 54% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 41% | xG Ried 1.47 / SCR Altach 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 1.082 / def 1.145 | SCR Altach attack 0.513 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.195 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Ried (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Ried xG
Expected Goals
0.75
SCR Altach xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs SCR Altach kick off?
Ried vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at josko ARENA.
What was the final score in Ried vs SCR Altach?
Ried 2 - 1 SCR Altach.
Where is Ried vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at josko ARENA.
What competition is Ried vs SCR Altach part of?
Ried vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 54% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ried the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Ried and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and SCR Altach?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ried and SCR Altach in?
Ried (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ried's attack at 1.08x the league average against SCR Altach's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.51x) against Ried's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ried Win
54%
1.86
28%
3.62
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Ried xG
Total xG
2.22
0.75
SCR Altach xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
4%
23.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.0 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Ried and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Ried and 0.75 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ried's recent record stands at 5W 6D 6L from 17 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 10L across 17 games — 0.76 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ried by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SCR Altach heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ried have managed 4W 4D 0L from 8 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Ried are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SCR Altach's away record stands at 2W 2D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ried come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ried are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.53 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 5W 6D 6L in their last 17 games (1.24 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 3W 4D 10L in their last 17 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or SCR Altach away?
Ried's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 2.00 PPG; SCR Altach away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ried won 3-0 on 13 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ried have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ried
2
Draws
5
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Ried have won 3, SCR Altach have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ried and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when SCR Altach 2-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Ried and SCR Altach?
SCR Altach have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SCR Altach see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ried 75%, SCR Altach 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Ried) and 38% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach in 38%; SCR Altach in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Ried's recent matches and 25% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ried vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Ried's recent games and 38% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ried and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ried edge out SCR Altach 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ried beat SCR Altach 2-1 at josko ARENA, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.47 xG and SCR Altach 0.75 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 1.08 / defence 1.15 against SCR Altach attack 0.51 / defence 1.13, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 54% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 19%, with Ried to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 59%, SCR Altach 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
SCR Altach's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ried arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.76. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.