Ried 1-3 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ried vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ried host Austria Vienna at josko ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 March 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ried — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried's home record at josko ARENA: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Vienna have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Vienna's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ried at 0.90 PPG versus Austria Vienna's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ried register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Austria Vienna in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ried, 2 for Austria Vienna and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 0–3 with Austria Vienna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Ried in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ried 61% and Austria Vienna 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 45% | Austria Vienna 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.10 xG and Austria Vienna 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 0.842 / defence 1.007 | Austria Vienna attack 0.906 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.323. Data: 41 Ried games / 41 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 33% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 39%. Fair-value odds: Ried 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Austria Vienna 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Vienna are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Ried 60% | Austria Vienna 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: josko ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 33% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Ried 1.10 / Austria Vienna 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 0.842 / def 1.007 | Austria Vienna attack 0.906 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Austria Vienna xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Ried vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at josko ARENA.
What was the final score in Ried vs Austria Vienna?
Ried 1 - 3 Austria Vienna.
Where is Ried vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at josko ARENA.
What competition is Ried vs Austria Vienna part of?
Ried vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 33% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Ried and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Austria Vienna?
Record (3 meetings): Ried 1W | Draws 0 | Austria Vienna 2W.
What form are Ried and Austria Vienna in?
Ried (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Austria Vienna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ried's attack at 0.84x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus Ried's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
33%
3.02
28%
3.54
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Ried xG
Total xG
2.31
1.21
Austria Vienna xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
10%
10.08
13%
7.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ried and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Ried and 1.21 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Ried have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 11W 18D 22L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Vienna's form line: 19W 18D 14L from 51 games, 1.47 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Austria Vienna are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ried.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ried have posted 1.40 PPG from 25 outings (8W 11D 6L).
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 8W 9D 8L from 25 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ried are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.47 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Austria Vienna in 63%.
Last 51 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 11W 18D 22L in their last 51 games (1.00 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 19W 18D 14L in their last 51 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or Austria Vienna away?
Ried's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 1.40 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ried and Austria Vienna runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Austria Vienna go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2021, when Austria Vienna won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ried's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ried
0
Draws
5
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Austria Vienna?
From 6 meetings on record, Ried have won 1, Austria Vienna have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ried and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Ried 0-2 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Ried and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 32% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ried 72%, Austria Vienna 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Ried) and 52% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Ried's games and 56% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ried vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Ried's recent games and 52% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ried and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Vienna cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ried.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat Ried 1-3 at josko ARENA, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.10 xG and Austria Vienna 1.21 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Austria Vienna outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.84 / defence 1.01 against Austria Vienna attack 0.91 / defence 0.97, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 33% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 39%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 45%, Austria Vienna 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Ried (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.