Red Bull Salzburg 2-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Red Bull Arena to take on Red Bull Salzburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 December 2021, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 6W 1D 0L at Red Bull Arena — 2.71 PPG. They are averaging 2.86 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Red Bull Salzburg are significantly better at Red Bull Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 3W 3D 2L from 8 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Red Bull Salzburg carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
TSV Hartberg trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Red Bull Salzburg 56% and TSV Hartberg 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 50% | TSV Hartberg 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.65 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.264 / defence 0.835 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.927 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.336. Red Bull Salzburg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — their λ of 1.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 16 Red Bull Salzburg games / 16 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 51% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 23%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | TSV Hartberg 4.35. Red Bull Salzburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Red Bull Salzburg 57% | TSV Hartberg 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 51% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.65 / TSV Hartberg 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.264 / def 0.835 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.927 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
1.03
TSV Hartberg xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Red Bull Salzburg 2 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 51% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg in?
Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Red Bull Salzburg's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Red Bull Salzburg's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.88
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.68
1.03
TSV Hartberg xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
4%
22.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.7 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.03 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, Red Bull Salzburg have picked up 2.44 PPG on a 12W 3D 1L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 5W 5D 6L from 16 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Red Bull Salzburg are the form team by 1.19 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against TSV Hartberg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 2.71 PPG from 7 outings (6W 1D 0L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 3D 2L from 7 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 2.19 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.56 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: TSV Hartberg in 69%.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 12W 3D 1L in their last 16 games (2.44 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 5W 5D 6L in their last 16 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.71 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Red Bull Salzburg's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Red Bull Salzburg
2
Draws
1
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, TSV Hartberg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Red Bull Salzburg see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 57%, TSV Hartberg 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Red Bull Salzburg) and 43% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Red Bull Salzburg play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Red Bull Salzburg's games and 71% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent games and 43% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Red Bull Salzburg have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Red Bull Salzburg edge out TSV Hartberg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat TSV Hartberg 2-1 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.65 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.03 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.26 / defence 0.83 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.93 / defence 1.07, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 51% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 23%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 50%, TSV Hartberg 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.